Upon a Stadium Change

According to this article in the NY Daily News, the Mets have decided to reduce the size of their center field wall at Citi Field. I wonder how the Mets fans, who killed the Yankees for their homer-friendly park, will take this news.

Upon a Second Career

Former NFL running-back Herschel Walker has apparently found a new career; beating the crap out of guys half his age. A long-time fitness freak (stories of thousands of situps and pushups a day abound) Walker is still built like a brick         s—house.

Upon Yankee Outfield Moves

The Yankees have signed Randy Winn to be their left fielder in 2010. All signs indicate that this has effectively closed the door on the return of Johnny Damon to the team. Scott Boras, Damon’s agent, has apparently over-priced Damon out of a spot on the defending champions. Early talk by Boras (comparing Damon to Jeter, Jason Bay and Mat Holliday) seems to have led to an oveestimation of his market value. Teams are not going for 2-years 20 million, and Damon seems to be in the same boat as Bobby Abreu last season. He may still catch on with a decent team (Detroit?) but he will most probably not be back in the Stadium, which was tailor-made for his swing.

Let’s look at what the Yankees have lost in the outfield, and what they have gained.

Offense

Johnny Damon- Hit .282 with 24 HR, 82 RBI, and 107 runs scored. .854 OPS

Melky Cabrera- Hit .274 with 13 HR, 68 RBI and 66 runs scored. .752 OPS.

Curtis Granderson- Hit .249 with 30 HR and 71 RBI and 91 runs scored. .780 OPS

Randy Winn- Hit .262 with 2 HR, 51 RBI, and 65 runs scored. .671 OPS

At first blush, it would seem that the Yankees have not upgraded in their offense. However, there are several things to remember:

• Damon and Cabrera put up their numbers in the potent Yankee lineup; which led baseball in most relevant offensive categories and played half it’s games in a potent hitters’ park. Winn was on a terrible Giants team and Granderson played in the cavernous Comerica Park. It is certainly reasonable to assume improvements for the two new additions.
• Although Winn will be playing left-field, the comparison should not be made between his offensive game and Damon’s. Similarly, Melky and Granderson should not be compared. In both instances, the incoming  players should be compared to their predecessors in lineup position. Damon was the Yankees’ #2 hitter, a role which will probably be filled by either Granderson or Nick Johnson. For the sake of our argument here, lets use Granderson:

Damon vs Granderson: Damon averaged 19 HR, 74 RBI and 102 runs in his 4 years in  pinstripes. Granderson averaged 24 HR, 70 RBI and 104 runs during the same period. Granderson averaged 163 hits per season, Damon averaged 159. Damon averaged 23 steals, Granderson 17. Granderson had 13 triples per year, Damon had 15 triples total. Damon had an OPS of .821, Granderson had an OPS of .831.

Overall, the numbers between the two are close, with a slight edge to Granderson. Now, remember that Granderson did his work in the Tigers’ lineup and played half his games in a big park (check the home/road splits). Now he will be moving to the friendly confines on Yankee Stadium, and as the #2 would bat behind Jeter and in front of Tex and A-Rod. Damon experienced a jump of 7 HR this season and tied his career high. Granderson hit 30 HR last year, and now gets to take his shots down the line in NY.

Factor in the ages of the two (Damon 36, Granderson 29) and the Yankees have certainly not lost anything in their #2 hitter.

Winn vs Melky- In the past 4 years, Melky averaged 9 HR, 57 RBI, and 62 runs. Winn averaged 9 HR, 59 RBI, and 76 runs. Winn averaged 163 hits, Melky averaged 129.  Melky averaged 11 steals, Winn 17.  Winn’s OPS was .745, Melky’s .715.

Again, apply the same change of scenery bumps to Winn that you did to Granderson. Put him in the 9-hole for the Yankees, with the killer lineup, as opposed to the Giants, whose second best hitter last year was Bengie Molina. Also, let’s not forget that Brett Gardner beat out Melky for the starting CF job last year before Melky took the job back and Gardner got hurt.

Again, Melky was clutch with the walkoffs, and Damon came up big in the playoffs. We can’t discount those facts. However, I raised this point to a friend of mine: Look at Abreu. Damon and Abreu both wanted too much money, more than teams were willing to offer. Swisher came in and his initial numbers paled in comparison to Abreu’s. How did that work out for the Yankees?

Defense- Damon can’t throw, has lost a step speed-wise, and is not a good outfielder overall. Melky has a cannon arm, and played well in center. Both Granderson and Winn are very good fielders, and I believe the overall rankings would go Granderson, Winn, Melky Damon. I’ll take #1 and #2 over #3 and #4.

Intangibles- Damon and Melky were fun-loving guys with good personalities. By all accounts, Granderson is Nick Swisher-esque in his clubhouse impact, and Winn is the same(read here for more).  I do worry a bit about the impact on Robinson Cano, who was best buds with Melky. However, I love the idea that the Yankees can replace two great clubhouse guys with two guys who might be as good or better.  I can see Granderson pumping up Swisher and Randy Winn chilling with Jeter and Posada.

Overall, I think the Yankees have actually improved their team. Brett Gardner remains a capable back-up at any OF position, and the new players have a chance to be even better on their new team.

Upon an Interesting Take on Baseball

How efficiently has your favorite baseball team been run? Here is an interesting take:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/tom_verducci/01/19/verducci.efficiency/index.html?eref=sihp

Upon Jason Bay and…..

I am really not sure what to make of the Mets’ recent acquisition of Jason Bay. First and foremost, they needed to get someone.  I know Met fans. I live around them and speak to them everyday. There are varying reactions to the current state of the team, but one thing is consistent; the Mets needed to get a good player with a name.

With players all over baseball changing addresses, the Mets could not afford to simply bide their time, monitor the market, and see how things would shake out. There are those who would argue that this would be the more prudent move for the long term health of the team, however,  I simply could not see that happening.  Here is how I see things for the Mets:

• They suffered two late season collapses with a division title in hand, and followed that up with a terrible 2009 season. The reasons for 2009’s disaster are what they are, but it was a rough year for the fanbase.
• The Phillies are in firm control of the NL East, having made the past two World Series (winning one) and just recently swinging a trade for Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee pitched his tail off for the Phills, but now they have a guy who is as good if not better than Mets’ ace Johan Santana.
• The Yankees are in firm control of NY baseball. There is no comparison here. The bandwagon fans are back, the die hards are crowing, and the Yankees continue to improve a team which won the most games in baseball in 2009 as well as the title.
• The new and expensive Citi Field was packed last year, as befits a new and expensive ballpark. It needs to continue to be filled for the franchise to remain profitable.
• Fans are fed up. Go to the blogs and websites. Turn on the TV or the radio. Strike up a conversation with someone in orange and blue. For an erstwhile contender  to fall down with the dregs of the league, whatever the reasons, simply will not fly with the fanbase.
• Omar Minaya, the GM, is on shaky ground. Despite apparently having the support of ownership, Minaya had a bad 2009. From press conference gaffes to concerns about the treatment of injured players, Minaya got bad PR left and right.

Today, it was reported that Jason Bay passed his physical, and will be joining the Mets. He will sign a 4-year $66 million deal, with a vesting option for a fifth year.  So what exactly did the Mets get themselves?

Bay’s 162 game average numbers are:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	162	582	102	163	34	4	33	107	86	157	12	2	.280	.376	.519	.895

He had a very good season with the bat in Boston in 2009, with 36 Hr, 119 RBI, an OPS of .921, and over 100 runs scored. However, he also hit only .267 and struck out 162 times (against only 142 hits)  in order to put up those numbers. He alternated between batting 4th 5th and 6th in the Boston lineup. He had great RISP and 2-out RISP numbers.

I found myself wondering how I would view this move if it was the Yankees that Bay was coming to, instead of the Mets. There is certainly a lot to like about Bay from an offensive standpoint. He has been approximately a 30 and 100 hitter, and has shown the ability to hit in the AL East where the big boys play. He has also shown the ability to score and drive in runs on the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

One thing which would concern me as a Met fan would be the effect of Citi Field, which seems to have held down the stats of some of Mets in 2009. David Wright certainly did not hit for the same power as he had in years past. The jury is still out on the overall effects of the park, especially considering all the injured players who did not have the chance to hit for a full season (Beltran, Delgado…etc). Bay as a right handed power guy would seem to have the skills to buck the trend, but we will see.

Also, there are concerns about Bay’s defense.  I am really not into the egghead defensive stats, as most of them would probably have advocated for replacing Derek Jeter. However, these stats do place him as a below average left fielder in recent years.

Overall, I think that the Mets probably did the best they could given their circumstances. I don’t like the 5th year option, and I am not sure year 4 will be a picnic for Met fans. I do think he can give them a nice core when healthy, provided Jose Reyes comes back to form. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Bay and presumably Delgado are a solid 5. I think that what affects the perception of this deal most is all the other issues left to fix. I think its a good get for the Mets the next two years, but I’m also not sure that he’s a lot better than Hideki Matsui has been. Heck, if they can get 3 or 4 starters and a catcher, the Mets might have just added a World Series MVP. So they’ve got that going for them, which is nice.

Upon a Jets Analysis

Happy New Year to everyone! I hope 2010 is filled with good things.

The Jets pasted the Bengals last night to win the final Wild Card spot in the AFC playoffs. Their opponent next Saturday will be…the Bengals. The Jets have had an up and down season, but finished off with an impressive win against a team which was clearly not at its best. Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis held #1 running back Cedric Benson out for the game, and pulled most of his starters in the third quarter with the game clearly getting out of hand.

I believe that the Bengals took a conservative approach to the game, with the very real possibility that they would be facing this same Jets team in the wild card round. The Jets were in a must-win situation, and needed to pull out all the stops. In essence, despite being beat down and shut-out, the Bengals got a free run-through for next week. The end-result was a massacre, but I doubt we will be seeing much of JT O’Sullivan next time.

The Jets can take some solace in the fact that they thoroughly dominated every aspect of last night’s game and made the playoffs; a scenario that looked unlikely earlier in the year. In fact, head coach Rex Ryan declared the Jets dead just 3 weeks ago following a disappointing loss to Atlanta.  In winning 5 of their last 6 games, and receiving help from other teams along the way, New York was able to recover some of the enthuiasm they stirred in opening the season 3-0. 

Three rookies featured prominently this season, and while Coach Ryan and QB Mark Sanchez got most of the press, running back Shonn Greene has begun to show his importance to the team’s success. When electric playmaker Leon Washington went down early in the season, the Jets found they had a capable backup in Greene. Thomas Jones continues to be a workhorse, with over 1400 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns this season; both career highs.

The Jets’ defense ended the season as the unquestioned #1. They led the NFL in yards and yards per game allowed, points and points per game allowed, and passing yards and yards per game allowed.  They also finished in the top 10 in rushing defense, despite the loss of Kris Jenkins to injury. Defense has long been the calling-card of Rex Ryan, the former leader of the ferocious Ravens’ unit. Darrelle Revis has become the league’s premier shut-down corner, and has stranded many top wideouts on “Revis Island”.  The linebacking corps is stacked, with Bryan Thomas and  Calvin Pace joining Baltimore transplant Bart Scott and emerging star David Harris.

Some analysts have begun drawing comparisons between the 2009 Jets and a couple of other teams which found success with running and defense, and some might say in spite of their quarterback. The Ravens of 2000 were certainly not counting on Trent Dilfer to do anything but manage games and let the D do the heavy lifting. In 2005 the Steelers won the title with a young Ben Roethlisberger not exactly lighting the world on fire in the playoffs. However, neither Roethlisberger nor Dilfer showed the propensity for interceptions based on bad decisions which has plagued Sanchez, and in turn the Jets.

With 20 picks against only 12 TD, Sanchez has probably put the Jets in position to lose several of their games. It was perhaps telling yesterday that he attempted only 16 passes, completing 8, for 63 yards. On key third down plays, the Jets often went to their version of the “wildcat” offense, with Brad Smith taking the snaps and making big plays. While this approach worked well against the Bengals, and may work again next week, it does not seem to be a viable strategy in a prolonged playoff run. Smith did not attempt a pass out of the formation, and unless the Jets were playing a bit of possum themselves, this fact will not escape any opposing defensive coordinator.

Perhaps the biggest victory last night was a moral one. In the days leading up to the game, worries of another let-down by the “same old Jets” were beginning to surface. In winning a critical game, and closing Giants Stadium by removing some of the stink of the beatdown endured by the Giants a week before, the Jets may have given long-suffering fans a reason for….. optimism.

Upon Changes to the Yankee Roster

News is coming across the wire that the Yankees have apparently agreed to a trade with the Atlanta Braves, which would center around a swap of Melky Cabrera for Javier Vazquez. Reliever Mike Dunn would also leave the Yankees, with Boon Logan coming back from Atlanta.

Now the Yankees, as they currently stand, have replaced Matsui and Cabrera in their lineup with Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson. I can only speculate, but i believe that this morning’s trade opens the door for the Yankees to a) bring back Johnny Damon at a more reasonable rate or b) possibly jump into the Bay sweepstakes?

I really don’t like messing with chemistry, and I am concerned about the departure of Robinson Cano’s best buddy on the team, as much for his play as for its impact on Robbie (who has his up and down months). However, I think an OF is easier to find than a starter, and Javy Vazquez did have a great year with the Braves in 2009. Still, the memory of 2004 lingers, as his first go-around with the Yankees ended in spectacularly poor fashion.

As an NL #2 starter, Vazquez was 15-10 with a 2.87 ERA and 238 K. You can look up all the stats here or here. ( Keith Law and I even had an argument about Vazquez being #2 on his Cy Young ballot this year.) With the Yankees Vazquez will likely slot in the #4 or #5 spot, depending on the winner of the proposed contest between Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes for a rotation spot.  another arm was important to add, but I wonder who will play left now. Could the Yankees really lay in the weeds and scoop Jason Bay or Matt Holliday? Would that even be fun/fair for fans? Time will tell.

Upon December Baseball Moves

With the NBA, NFL and NHL in full swing, and Tiger Woods embroiled in a scandal, Major League Baseball has still found a way to push itself onto the backpages of newspapers across the country. A series of major moves, coming on the heels of the annual Winter Meetings, have altered the landscape in both leagues. Let’s look at some of the big deals:

Yankees get Curtis Granderson, Diamondbacks get Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson, Tigers get Max Scherzer, Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth-

This was an interesting move for all three teams. The Diamondbacks added two pitchers to their rotation which features Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. I was one of the minority who believed that Kennedy could have developed into something for the Yankees, and he will get his chance in the desert. Edwin Jackson had a breakout year for the Tigers, and is a solid option as a number 3 starter. However, I am not really sure about the incentive to move the players they sent away.

Detroit received a serious youth infusion in the deal. Austin Jackson has been the Yankees’ prize prospect, and was considered the heir apparent for the center field position. He should slot into Granderson’s spot. Phil Coke is a solid lefty-vs-lefty matchup reliever, who Girardi showed faith in during the year. Scherzer is another formerly prized prospect with some serious stuff. Schlereth, the son of former NFL player and current ESPN analyst Mark “Stink” Schlereth, is a fireballing reliever who is still learning his craft. After losing the AL Central to the Twins down the stretch in 2009, the Tigers were looking for a shake-up, and certainly found it.

The Yankees have a center fielder. Curtis Granderson will almost certainly move Melky Cabrera to left field, and take a spot at the top of the lineup (possibly Damon’s former second spot?).  The analysis of his fit with the Yankees will likely be exhaustive in the NY media, but preliminarily I will say that I like the move.  Much has been made about his recent struggles against lefties, but a player who has shown the ability to go 20-20-20 (triples-steals-HR) and to hit 30 HR while playing half his games in a big Detroit park should be a great fit in the Yankee lineup. Jeter-Granderson-Teixeira-Rodriguez-Cano-Posada-Swisher-Cabrera and the eventual DH (who we can assume won’t be a schulb) still looks like trouble for all opponents.  200 HR from the starters?

John Lackey to the Red Sox (5 years, $85 Million)

Mike Cameron to the Red Sox (2 years, approx $15 Million)

This Article does a good job investigating the ins and outs of the Lackey deal, so I will link to it and add some brief thoughts of my own on both moves.  The Red Sox are certainly taking steps to change up their team, following a first round exit against the Angels in the postseason this year. Jason Bay appears on his way out the door, and while Mike Cameron should provide an upgrade in defense he will be hard-pressed to replace the offense Bay provided during an outstanding 2009 season. Lackey on paper looks like a solid #3 pitcher behind Beckett and Lester, and with Buchholz and Dice-K as the presumed 4 and 5, the Sox now have a hearty rotation top to bottom.  However, with Mike Lowell and David Ortiz apparently on the downswing, I am not sure if Cameron and Marco Scutaro are the only offensive additions the Sox will need.

The Lackey addition strikes me as similar to the addition of AJ Burnett last offseason. With the Yankees, the main concern with adding Burnett was his injury history. Lackey also has some red flags in this area.  However, Burnett had success against the Yankees and the rest of the AL East, while Lackey has a career 5.75 ERA in Fenway

Back later with thoughts on Matsui to LAA, Figgins to Sea, and the rumored Halladay-Lee blockbuster.

Upon a Trade

A potential deal is in the works, which would send Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson to the Yankees, and Phil Coke, Ian Kennedy and Austin Jackson elsewhere.

If this goes down, the Yankees deserve a lot of credit. Sure they spent a ton on CC and Burnett and Tex, but not trading Kennedy and Hughes for Johan Santana is looking smarter and smarter. Rather than breaking open the bank again, the Yankees will add a front-end starter and a a good CF player, and trade to make it happen.

Upon Jeter vs Wright- Awards Tally

As of this morning the 2009 count stands as follows:

Roberto Clemente Awards- Jeter-1 Wright-0

Hank Aaron Awards- Jeter-1 Wright-0

Gold Gloves- Jeter-1 Wright-0

World Series Rings- Jeter-1 Wright-0