Updated- Busy day in the comments today, check there for a back-and-forth on the Mets trade…etc
So the Mets apparently got Johan Santana for the time honored bag of balls/pu-pu platter. The Twins sure seem like a shrewd negotiators after accepting the 4th best proposal for their ace pitcher and one of the best left-handers of this generation. I know that they would not have been able to pay the record-setting extension that Santana will command, but they didn’t even get the Mets’ best minor league prospect. So long as the Sox don’t get him, I am fine with Santana going to a flawed NL team.
Hey fouledout, it seems like the Hornets are still in first place. Could an All-Star coaching slot be in Byron Scott’s future?
Chris Webber decided to return to the team that drafted him, and the coach with whom he feuded. Could a gimpy PF fit in to a go-go-go team who lives on the fast break?
January 30, 2008 at 11:07 am |
Just b/c all the yankee and sox fans in the media are saying that they offered more than the Mets, doesn’t make it true. Nor is it true that the Mets got him b/c the Yanks “passed” on him. The Yank payroll (218.4 last year officially) is overbloated by bad contracts, and they couldn’t both add to the payroll and shed a lot of prospects. Sox were just in it to keep him from the Yanks. Reports are that Yanks offered Melky and Kennedy. That is not a better offer than the Mets’ offer.
This was not a bad package under the circumstances. Santana wanted to be a Met and told them to trade him this week or he’ll exercise his no trade for the rest of the year. As for the prospects, Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra are huge prospects. Gomez is a sick athlete who is already a gold glover caliber centerfielder. If he learns pitch identification/selection, he could be a star. No GM in his right mind would take Melky over him for the long run. Guerra a big, young stud with a huge upside. High risk/high reward type like Gomez. Could be nothing, could be a star. Only time will tell. Mulvey and Humber solid prospects who are close to major league ready. These guys are in the same class as Ian Kennedy, although a notch below.
January 30, 2008 at 11:23 am |
Well, on the Yankee’s passing on the trade front, I’ll refer you to this article
http://www.northjersey.com/sports/14896371.html
Melky, Kennedy and a top Yankee prospect > 4 Mets prospects. Also, pay particular attention to the part where they mention that the Twins could have had Hughes, Cabrera, a double A stud, and their pick of another top prospect from the Yankees. That offer is far superior.
On the Gomez vs Melky front, I will file that in the “you thinking a Met is better than a Yankee, me disagreeing” folder, which now occupies about half a file cabinet, lol.
January 30, 2008 at 11:53 am |
Just noticed your “flawed” team comment. What’s “flawed” about a rotation of Santana, Pedro, Perez, Maine and El Duque? That’s better than the Yanks’ rotation. What’s “flawed” about a lineup of Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Alou, Church, and Schneider? That’s a damn good lineup with both power and speed. What’s “flawed” about a defense featuring Schneider, Reyes, Castillo and Beltran up the middle, plus a centerfielder in right and a gold glover at third? They will be one of the best defensive teams in baseball this year. What’s “flawed” about a bullpen with Sosa, Wise, Shoenweiss, Feliciano, Sanchez, Heilman, and Wagner? While not spectacular, that’s a deep bullpen with a top ten closer. What’s flawed about a bench of Chavez, Easley, Marlon Anderson, Gotay and Castro? Chavez is as good as your starting centerfielder, and Anderson is the best pinch-hitter in the game.
This team is anything but “flawed.” This team is built to win. Great starting pitching and defense with a balanced lineup and a deep bullpen. I’m predicting 97 wins and a world series appearance.
January 30, 2008 at 1:43 pm |
The thing is, no one really knows who was really, legitimately offered by the Yanks and Sox. It seems that the Yanks and Sox were engaging in a circle jerk with the Twins in the middle to keep Santana away from each other. Why assume the Twins are morons. Check out their wins per $ spent compared to the Yanks. Look at some of the prospects they have gotten in past trades (Liriano, Nathan). They seem to know what they’re doing. Did they take the 4th best offer just to spite the Yanks? That’s just plain silly. They took what they thought was the best offer at the time. Perhaps they overplayed their hand in December, but they got a nice package just the same.
As for Gomez, he may be a total bust and he may be a superstar. Only time will tell. Melky will never be anything more than mediocre, and he’s not even there yet. Average fielder with a good arm, and a .270 hitter without power who the scouts do not project to develop power. If he wasn’t a Yankee, you would call him a “garbage” player — and you would be right. Melky may be a more advanced hitter right now, but Gomez has a lot of upside. For the Twins’ sake, I hope he reaches it. Mulvey and Humber are not as good as Kennedy, but they are in the same class. Hope you haven’t deluded yourself into believing Kennedy is in the same class as Joba and Hughes. He’s not even close.
January 30, 2008 at 1:49 pm |
Ah where to begin….
#1 vs #1- Santana over Wang in a closer decision than you probably feel
#2 vs #2- Pettite over the artist formerly known as Pedro. In a landslide. Though his 2.57 ERA in the 5 games he started all year was pretty impressive. Much better than the 4.48 ERA in his 23 games the year before. HGH talk all you want, Pettite is the better pitcher at this stage of the game. 28 games pitched in 2 years, thats nearly Pavano-esque.
#3 vs #3- Jury is out on Hughes. He lowered his ERA by a full run from Sept 5 to Sept 27, and won his last three starts down the stretch of a playoff push. He was pitching hurt and for the first time in the big show. Oliver Perez won his final 8 games with run support of 9, 8, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15 runs. Plus he lasted 3.2 innings in a crucial game against Florida with everything on the line.
#4 vs #4- I like John Maine and he had a huge last game of the year. 15-10 is a good record for a #4, so no real knock on him here. He is also going up against an unknown. We don’t know what Kennedy and Joba have, only what they’ve shown. At their best, there is no contest with Maine, and they bump everybody below Wang down a notch on the Yankee staff.
#5 vs #5- Is it Mussina? If it is you have to ask which Mussina, and if a full year of him is better than a big ? from Hernandez. Also, which El Duque will show up to pitch? Plus he’s at least 53 years old. If its one of the Kennedy or Job duo, the comments above still hold.
I don’t have the stats to show it yet, but you know who you’d rather have going into the season.
Also, in the playoffs, who do you want taking the ball? Santana, Pedro, Maine/Perez or Wang, Pettite, Hughes/Joba?
If you think the Mets are anything but flawed, I am not sure how. Two of your top 5 never pitch a full season anymore. Your “top 10 closer” can not be trusted when its all on the line. This team epically chocked last year and retains most of its core players. I said Santana was going to a flawed team, and the Mets without him certainly are.
Endy Chavez is better than Johnny Damon? Seriously, come on. The starting CF for the Yankees is not as good as a platoon/bench player who has never scored over 66 runs or driven in over 47?
Good to have you back.
(drop some Big Blue knowledge before the Big Game, i have one more article i need to write)
January 30, 2008 at 2:07 pm |
Another one for you- Reyes Wright Belran vs. Rollins Utley Howard
January 30, 2008 at 2:11 pm |
Santana and Wang are not close. Santana is the best pitcher in the game. Wang might be in the top 20 (so long as you ignore his post-season performances). Pedro, Perez and Maine all had ERA’s last year which were lower than Petitte’s in his last year in the NL. Perez is a young stud and you can’t find a better 4 than Maine. Perez and Maine both won 15 games last year with sub-4.00 eras. Not too shabby. Pedro’s high era from 2006 was the result of trying to pitch thru an injury. His era for the first couple of months of 06 was spectacular. Hughes and Chamberlain are huge prospects and I would love to have them in our organization, but they have’t proven a thing yet. Perez and Maine have. And don’t forget that Perez was that caliber of a prospect at one point in his career as well. The only difference between El Duque and Mussina is that Mussina sucks, and El Duque doesn’t.
When I said Chavez was better than your centerfielder, I was alluding to Melky. Damon is not your centerfielder any more. He’ll split time at DH and left with Crapsui, and he’ll back-up in center.
Back to the rotations, Wang is a good 2, but he’s no ace like Santana. Hughes and Chamberlain may be great, but they may not be. Both have to be considered question marks at this point, scouting reports notwithstanding. Mussina is awful and does not belong on a major league roster. As for Petitte, he’s still good, but he is not, and never was, great. He’s a three right now, and he’s no better than Perez. Yankees’ pitching might be really good this year, but it could also be a disaster. Just imagine of the rookies shit the bed (always possible with any rookie), Mussina pitches like last year, and Petitte takes a step back due to age. Just a lot of question marks in your rotation right now.
January 30, 2008 at 2:43 pm |
I’ll take Reyes, Wright and Beltran because they are better all around players when you consider defense and baserunning. Howard is a DH, and Rollins’ and Utley’s power numbers are exagerrated by their home ballpark. But that’s besides the point. Now that we have Santana and a healthy Pedro, the fillies don’t stand a chance.
By the way, don’t get me wrong about the Yanks’ pitching. The potential to be very good is there. Wang will be Wang, and Petitte should be good. And if both Hughes and Chamberlain live up to their hype, the rotation will be really good. But if they don’t and if Pettite’s elbow starts barking (he might be due after last year), you’re in deep shit. Plus, your bullpen is no better than last year’s pre-Jaba bullpen, and if you start limiting Hughes and Chamberlain’s innings, it will be overworked and exposed again. I just think the Mets’ pitching has fewer question marks this year. Santana is the best pitcher in the game and Pedro (the best pitcher of his generation) should be healthy. He may not throw 95 any more, but he doesn’t need to. Perez and Maine are young and upcoming pitchers who won 15 games each last year with sub-4.00 eras, and El Duque is as good a 5 as there is.
January 30, 2008 at 2:49 pm |
First, though Mussina had a pretty bad year last year, he is far from not belonging on a MLB roster. He won 7 0f his last 10 starts, and it would have been 8 of 10 without a blown save on the last game of the year. He would pitch 3rd or 4th for the Mets, and lasts longer in each start than Pedro or Duque, with similar numbers. We won’t rehash the NL vs AL difference, but suffice it to say that his numbers would look better in Queens than the Bronx.
wins- The last 4 years, Duque has provided 8, 9, 11, and 9 wins. Mussina has given the Yankees 12, 13, 15, 11. 51 wins is worth more than 37, right?
IP- Duque has gone 84.7, 128.3, 162.3, and 147.7 for a total of 523
Mussina 164.7, 179.7, 197.3, and 152.0 for a total of 693. A team having both players gets basically a full season more with Mussina, and more wins for the team.
ERA- el Duque- 3.72, 4.66, 5.12, 3.30= average of 4.2
Moose- 5.15, 3.51, 4.41. 4.59 = average of 4.41
WHIP- EL D- 4 year average of 1.3118
Mussina- 4 year average of 1.3175
So between Mussina and El Duque over the last 4 years, you get 14 more wins, an equal ERA and WHIP in the NL and AL, and a full season more of innings pitched. Sounds like Mussina is the better pitcher, no?
January 30, 2008 at 2:58 pm |
A four year span is irrelevant for guys that age. Mussina lost his velocity last year and is done. He would not make the Mets’ rotation. El Duque still throws harder than Mussinia, and he is a junkballer. Just compare their stats from last year. ERA, hits per innings, strikeout per innings. El Duque was much better. As for league differences, these things are vastly overrated. For example, Pettite had a lower ERA last year than he did the year before in the NL (over 4.00 with the astros). But, I do expect Santana to have a monster year his first year in the NL, pitching at Shea on grass instead of the homerdome on turf.
January 30, 2008 at 3:05 pm |
Moose had a 5.15 era and a 1.47 whip, and the league hit .311 against him. El Duque had a 3.72 era and a 1.17 whip, and thw league hit .206 against him. Moreover, Duque went more innings per start (don’t forget he picthed out of the bullpen as well) than Moose, although he is in the NL where they have this thing called “strategy” which often requires the manager to pinch hit.
January 30, 2008 at 3:12 pm |
What about their 5 or 6 year age difference? Duque was 38 way back during his last season with the Yankees. At 43/44 he’s going to throw harder than Moose? We’ll go with a wait and see policy, and I bet you by the ASB Mussina’s numbers will have corrected to his average career stats, and El D will have spent time on the DL.
As for the league changes, look at Pedro’s numbers his last year in the AL to his first back in the NL. Pretty drastic for a guy who looked baffled at the end there in Boston.
January 30, 2008 at 3:16 pm |
Plus, we are debating a guy who might make the Yankees top 5 versus 2/5 fo your rotation.
I agree that there are question marks about the young arms on the Yankees, but whats not to be optimistic about? After Santana, who would be the ace, who on the Mets starts for the Yankees? I know Wang Pettite and Hughes on potential are your 2,3, and 4.
January 30, 2008 at 3:20 pm |
No question Moose had a better career than Duque, but Duque’s clearly the better picther right now. .311 batting average against pretty much says it all. The entire league hit like a hall of famer against Moose last year.
As for Pedro, he was pitching hurt (bad toe) his last year in Boston. And he did pretty well — more k’s and w’s in Boston than NY. What about his second from last year in Boston?
January 30, 2008 at 3:34 pm |
Perez and Maine are just as good as Pettite right now (2008) — take a look at their numbers last year and look at what Perez did in 04. Perez won 15 games with a 3.56 era and a 1.31 whip. Maine won 15 games with a 3.91 ERA and 1.27 whip. Pettite won 15 games (on a better offensive team) with a 4.05 era and a 1.43 whip. As for the AL/NL differences, pettite had a 4.20 era in the NL the year before. When you consider their respective ages, it is reasonable to project that Perez and Maine will be slightly better this year than last and Pettite will be slightly worse.
Pedro is definately better than Pettite.
If we combined the pitching staffs (and I was the manager/gm), I would start Santana, Wang, Pedro, Pettite and Perez. Maine and Jaba would go to the pen where they would set up Wagner and Mariano, who woudl split closing duties depending on matchups. Hughes would be on call in AAA for a Pedro or Pettite injury.
January 30, 2008 at 4:07 pm |
OP was never the #1 prospect in the minors. Hughes in AAA is a waste. Joba does not set up for Wagner, he is a clearly superior pitcher. You have Joba and Wagner as the 8th inning combo ala Nelson and Stanton. If you combined staffs, you would trade Maine and OP for a bat, and keep Kennedy stashed in AAA.
January 30, 2008 at 4:18 pm |
I was assuming no trades — just send to the minors those players with options and cut the rest. That’s why I would send down Hughes and let him hone his craft at AAA.
By the way, how many saves does Joba have compared to Wagner? Chamberlain has yet to prove that he is a better pitcher than Wagner.
Do you expect Hughes and Chamberlain to out-perform Perez and Maine in 08? That would be asking a lot. I’d be very surprised if they win more games this year than OP and Maine.
January 30, 2008 at 4:20 pm |
If I told you game 7 of the WS was on the line, top of the ninth, your team at home. You sending out Wagner or Joba?
January 30, 2008 at 4:45 pm |
Depends, are there any swarming midges? Honestly, I would probably take Joba right now. But that’s one game. He hasn’t done enough yet to say that he’s better than wagner, nor has he proven that he can close for a contender in ny for an entire year.
You didn’t answer my question about Hughes and Joba. Do you expect them to out-perform OP and Maine this year? If they do, you guys will really have something.
And by the way, right now, same situation as above, no swarming midges, Joba or mariano?
January 30, 2008 at 5:02 pm |
LOL, my co-worker said the same thing about the Midges. Though I think Girardi would stop the game.
Joba did not prove he was a closer, but in my scenario of roster combination, he and Wagner platoon in the 8th. Lefty/righty matchups, as Wagner still has some filthy stuff. However, If we dont go on career, we go on last year (as with Mussina v El Duque), Joba looks like the guy.
Game 7 of the WS, still Mo, though not as 100% as it was a few years ago.
On the Hughes and Joba vs OP and Maine, I absolutely expect the Yankee tow to out-perform the Met guys. Then again, I am highly optimistic. There is a greater unknown with Joba and Phil, but a greater upside. Hughes at his best was easily no-hitting the Rangers. Joba at his best was 100 MPH with filthy breaking stuff. Maine had 14 K in a big game, and OP was a 7 inning shut out or an 11 K game.
and don’t sleep on Kennedy, who is a better comparison for Maine.
January 30, 2008 at 5:21 pm |
Hughes and Joba have a better upside for their careers, but not for this year. Neither of them has ever logged 30 plus starts or anything close to 200 innings in a season before. That’s a big step for both of them to take, and it’s unrealistic to expect them to both take that step and excel in the process as rookies. I wouldn’t be shocked if they had big years, but I sure as hell wouldn’t bank on it. Dwight Goodens are few and far between. It generally takes pitchers years to develop. And will Joba be throwing 100 as a starter? What about in the 7th inning? Or about in August or September with 170 innings under his belt? As for his filthy breaking stuff, we only saw his slider last year. You need more than 2 pitches to excel as a starter. I’m not saying that he doesn’t have a third pitch, only that we haven’t seen it yet. Before you get your hopes to high, take a close look at King Felix. His stuff is just as nasty, if not nastier, than Joba’s. But he has yet to have a break-out year.
Kennedy does not have Maine’s stuff. Maine’s fastball is filthy. Consistently b/w 92-94 with great, late movement. OP”s stuff is as good as any lefty’s in the game.
January 31, 2008 at 10:57 am |
Both the Post and the News refuted the Klapisch article today and reported that the Twins final demand from the Yanks included Wang and Kennedy.
January 31, 2008 at 11:41 am |
links? Wang and Kennedy up from hughes and kennedy? Come on, i doubt they would hold fast on the Yankees #1 pitcher and then take a trade from the Mets that didnt even give up their #1 minors prospect.
January 31, 2008 at 12:34 pm |
Having some problems with the link. Just go to the New York Post’s website and read Joel Sherman’s column.