The 2008 Yankees will have a pitching staff that combines youth and experience. Mike Mussina will be 40 in December, Phil Hughes will be 22 in June. Andy Pettite is entering his 14th season in the Majors, Ian Kennedy’s next start will be his 4th…ever. And at the top of it all is the Yankee’s #1 pitcher, who needs to show that he is a true ace, all the way through October.
Chien -Ming Wang- 2007 Numbers- 19-7, 199 IP, 199 hits, 59 BB, 104 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Catcher- Jorge Posada
Jorge picked an excellent time to have one of his finest offensive season’s ever. Posada was resigned to a whopping 4 year 52 million dollar contract, after lighting it up at the plate. His 20 HR and 90 RBI were a bit below his career average, but he batted .338 (.51 higher than his previous career high) and 171 hits (30 more than he’d ever hit). He scored 91 runs (1 off his career high), and his doubles, slugging and OBP were all career highs.
In a statistical curiosity, Posada’s power numbers were remarkably consistent. In April, May June and July, Posada finished each month with 3 HR and 15 RBI. In August he had 4 and 18, in September/October 4 and 12. While not as overwhelming as some of his teammates, Posada brought consistent performance every month, with no lulls.
Right Field- Bobby Abreu
The right field position gets first crack because it is the most solidly locked in to place. As long as Abreu is healthy, he is out in right. Abreau really came on in the second half of last year, especially in July(.353 with 29 RBI) and August (.324 with 24 RBI). Bobby’s power numbers have never been huge, depite his HR derby win, and moving from Philly and the NL to the Stadium and the AL has meant high teens in HR during his two seasons with the Yankees.
Abreu will drive in about 100 runs each year, score over 100, and steal a surprising number of bases (nearly 30 in an average season). He vies with Giambi for best eye at the plate, and grabs over 100 BB a year as well.
In the field, Abreu has a arm, and is often over rated by runners. He brings good skills to the table, and doesn’t take much off.
In another parallel with Giambi, Abreu is in the last year of his deal, and should be motivated to earn what is likely to be the last big money contract of his career.
2008 Prediction- .285, 19 HR, 125 RBI, 98 Runs, 33 steals
Melky or Damon can spell Abreu on his random DH or rest days. Bobby likes to play every day.
Center Field- Johnny Damon and Melky Cabrera
The center field position is one of the more unsettled positions on the Yankee roster, as the Yankees have 4 outfielders for only three spots, and the center position has two excellent candidates. Damon played 141 games in 2007, with 48 Cames in center, 32 games in left field, and 47 games as a designated hitter. Cabrera played 150 games in 2007, with 131 games in center and 18 games in left.
Heres a look at their offensive numbers:
Damon- .270, 12 HR, 63 RBI, 93 runs, 27 steals, 144 hits
Cabrera- .273, 8 HR, 73 RBI, 66 runs, 13 steals, 149 hits
The numbers are fairly close, with Damon’s biggest advantages coming in 27 more runs and 14 more steals. Cabrera drove in 10 more runs, and hit 8 triples. Damon was the team’s primary lead-off hitter, with Cabrera filling the role when Damon was out. Melky batted 1st or 9th primarily, with occasional stints at other slots. The biggest difference between the two offensively is that Damon has ten more seasons under his belt and on his legs. 2008 will be only the third full-season for Cabrera.
The difference between Melky and Damon will likely be seen in the field. Damon has a terrible arm power-wise, and for the past two years has had as many errors as assists. Melky has a very strong arm, and led the majors in CF assists with 14. Again, Damon’s legs are much older than Melky’s and combined with his lack of arm strength, Cabrera should be the team’s everyday CF with the offenses being equal.
2008 Predictions-
Cabrera- 130 games in center, .271, 16 HR, 75 RBI, 88 Runs, 30 SB
Damon- 25 games in center, .291, 12 HR, 70 RBI, 111 Runs, 26 SB
Left Field- Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon
Hideki Matsui had a really crappy first and last month of the season in 2007, but in between had a really good season. His July was phenomenal, as he batted .345 with 13 HR and 28 RBI, for an OPS of 1.145. During Alex Rodriguez least productive month, Matsui picked the team up big-time. Though his batting average dipped, Matsui did score 100 runs and draw 73 walks. When batting between the 5 and 6 hole in the lineup, scoring and driving in 100 runs is a solid season.
In the field, Matsui is a mixed bag. He is not as bad as some say, and not nearly as good as others believe. As an avid watcher, I have found that he makes the right play more often than not when throwing, but his routes and coverage leave something to be desired.
I believe that Matsui will split time between left field and DH, but that the Yankees are best served with Damon as the DH. Matsui can also play center if the Yankees need to move things around with Giambi as DH and keep Damon’s bat in the lineup.
2008 Prediction- .288, 27 HR, 108 RBI, 105 runs
Pitchers and catchers up next….
Short Stop- Derek Jeter
Not a lot can be said or written about Jeter which will add much to the discussion. His clutch play is mentioned too frequently, as are his supposed liabilities on defense. Coming off what I considered to be an MVP season in 2006, Jeter put up a fairly typical (for him) season offensively last year. He batted .322, hit in the teens for HR, drove in around 70, collected 200 hits and scored 100 runs. he had a very poor beginning of the season with the glove, and his end of year defensive statistics placed him as an average shortstop. Jeter apologists will always cite his play in big spots, Jeter detractors will use whatever Sabremetrics they can to paint him as an anchor in the infield. I don’t have much interest in engaging either topic.
Jeter had a drop-off offensively in the second half, after hitting .336 with 44 RBI and 114 hits in the first half. His stats with 2 outs and RISP and his stats with the game in the balance were still outstanding. I think that Jeter will continue to be what we expect of him, with a possible NL-like focus under Girardi. Torre seemed content to let Jeter be Jeter, and I have a feeling that the new manager may push his Captain to be more. Some more vocal leadership wouldn’t hurt.
2008 prediction- .319, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 104 runs, 212 hits
Jeter usually takes the ball every day, and Betemit may spell him if needed.
Third Base- Alex Rodriguez
BOOOOOOO!!!! Epitomizing the Nietzschian principle, Rodriguez turned in an MVP season in 2007, and finally shook off the boo-birds that dogged him (in the regular season anyway). He literally took the entire team on his back for stretches, as an MVP should. alex batted .314 with 54 HR and a sick 156 RBI. He scored 143 runs with 183 hits and even swiped 23 bags along the way. a-rod batted .236 in May and .206 in July, which is the only thing that kept him from an average near .350 and an OPS of 1.200.
Alex was in one of the more bizarre walk years in recent memory, as his contract contained a player opt-out clause which he ended up exercising at the end of last year. After a ton of bad press, Alex came back to the Yankees and signed another huge deal.
In the field, A-rod continued to improve in his transition to third base. 13 errors is a bit hit, but it was 11 fewer than his 2006 total. I personally am of the opinion that his fielding will continue to improve. However, with offense like that…
Rodriguez’ offensive averages now stand at .306, 44HR, 128 RBI, 128 runs, and .967 OPS. I just saw that stat for the first time myself, and thats pretty freaking impressive. its tempting to look at the contract thing as an explanation for the year he had in 2007, but looking at his average 162 game season gives another picture.
So what about the playoffs? In the series against the Indians, A-rod had 4 hits, including a HR, 2 runs scored, 1 RBI, 2 walks and 6 Ks. Better than 2006 and 2005, still not superhuman like his regular seasons have been.
2008 Prediction- .298, 43 HR, 147 RBI, 1.01 OPS, 130 Runs scored
If you have read my blog for any period of time, you know what this is about. Here we go:
First Base: Jason Giambi
As in years past, health and fielding are the primary concerns for Jason as the everyday first baseman. Jason only made it into half of the team’s games last year, a pattern which has persisted during his Yankee tenure. His glovework is not stellar, and the DH option is always tempting for someone of his offensive potential. Reports from the Yankees spring camp have Giambi among the many Yankees who showed up to camp in much better shape than in the past several camps under Torre. I think it is safe to say that Giambi’s .271 batting average in 2005 is the best fans can hope for, as he has done little to show the potential for the .333 or .342 seasons he threw up in Oakland (perhaps with some help?) His OBP and OPS will generally be high, as he hits HR when healthy and still has a good eye at the plate leading to over 100 walks each year. If Giambi can give you 135+ games, he is good for 30-40 HR, 100+ RBI, and a .900 or higher OPS. He is, as always, well protected in the Yankee lineup.
The x-factor for Giambi is that he is in the last year of his huge contract with the Yankees. There is an option for 2009, but it is a club option which is unlikely to be picked up given the huge pricetag. If there is any incentive for Giambi to show that he may be worth a team’s millions for a few more years, this would be the year. He also may be nearing his last shot to win a ring.
2008 Prediction- .260, 35 HR, 109 RBI, .430 OPB. Contract year for Giambi, and several consecutive years off of PED.
Any mention of Giambi at first needs to include the games where he is the DH. In the absence of Miguel Cairo (who actually had a worse year defensively than Jason) there will be a three-headed competition for the job. Shelley Duncan brings the power and excitement, Wilson Betemit is a switch hitter, and Morgan Ensberg has the power. I think that Duncan is more of the starter, with Betemit being more of the pinch hit replacement while also being the utility 3b.
Second Base- Robinson Cano
Cano batted .306 with 19 HR, 97 RBI, 189 hits, and 93 runs scored in 2007. Not a bad year for a 2B.
In the second half of the season he hit .343 with 13 HR, 57 RBI, 99 hits and 53 runs scored. These numbers alone are a decent year for a 2B.
I am of the opinion that Cano will continue to come on like gangbusters. In 2006, he showed that he can bat in the .340 range for a whole season, and last year he reverted right back to that form in the second half. It is easy to forget that 2008 will only be Cano’s 4th season in the bigs, and that hes only 25. His power numbers are increasing each year, and his hot-streak runs are impressive, as evidenced by his .385, 6 and 24 July, or his .333, 3 and 21 Sept/Oct. Cano HATES to walk, and this drives his OBP much lower than a .342 hitter should show. He also does not steal bases, but did have 7 triples last season.
With the glove, Cano continues to be a bit of a project. 13 errors is a lot, and his fielding % is right at the league average. The Yankees must look at his offense to make his play at second more palatable. He was involved in a lot of DP last year, but still makes mistakes in the field.
2008 prediction- .338, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 201 hits, 98 runs
Cano’s back-up will be Wilson Betemit, who looks to be the super utility man. Robinson played 160 games last year, and does have young legs.
The spring is still swinging, and there is much change in Yankee land. The lassez-faire camps of Torre have been replaced by a cardio-fest under new manager Joe Girardi. The first base job is still open, as is the “most days” center field position. The starting rotation has to be selected and ordered. Mariano Rivera is scheduled to throw his first pitch today.
The 2008 Yankee preview will in all probability be up in the next week or so (for those of you that care)
Various media outlets are reporting that Green Bay Packers quarterback Brett Favre has decided to retire after 17 seasons in the NFL.
I wrote about Favre briefly in my review of the Giants/Packers NFC Championship game. He may not have been the most technically capable athlete to play the position, but he has long stood as one of the best QBs of all time. He owns most of the notable career records, never missed a start, and almost always made his fans believe his team had a chance.
Favre experienced an rennaisance this year, and the Packers did along with him. Unfortunately for him and the Green Bay faithful, the Giants simply would not be denied.
So say farewell to Favre. He is not cut from the same cloth as superstars like Brady and Manning. He was an old-school gun-slinger who lived and died with his rocket arm and burglar’s guts. I enjoyed the ride.
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