The 2008 Yankees will have a pitching staff that combines youth and experience. Mike Mussina will be 40 in December, Phil Hughes will be 22 in June. Andy Pettite is entering his 14th season in the Majors, Ian Kennedy’s next start will be his 4th…ever. And at the top of it all is the Yankee’s #1 pitcher, who needs to show that he is a true ace, all the way through October.
Chien -Ming Wang- 2007 Numbers- 19-7, 199 IP, 199 hits, 59 BB, 104 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Excellent seasons from CC Sabathia and Josh Beckett overshadowed some excellent regular season pitching from Wang. He won 19 games for the second season in a row, and has established himself as the number 1 starter in the regular season for the Yankees. Wang has a devastating sinker that some scouts have compared to a bowling ball. He uses it as an out pitch the same way many power pitchers have a strikeout pitch. He used in to induce 32 double plays, and countless other groundouts.
In terms of splits, Wang pitches better at home than on the road, and much better at night than during the day. He is 13-2 in night games, as opposed to 6-5 during day games. He also has some trouble on turf, which negates some of his ability to create ground outs. Overall, Wang has established himself as a quality front-line starter.
The worry for Yankee fans comes from Wang’s performance in the 2007 playoff series against the Indians. In his two starts he gane up 14 hits and 12 runs, and couldn’t deliver 2 games that the Yankees could have won. However, this is only Wang’s 4th full season in the Majors, and he should continue to progress with experience. He has also been working during the spring on other pitches to compliment his sinker.
2008 prediction- 17-7, 3.89 ERA, 130 K
Andy Pettite- 2007 Stats- 15-9, 215 IP, 238 hits, 69 BB, 141K, 4.05 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Pettite endured a rough off-season, as he became embroiled in the Mitchell report/ Clemens saga. He admitted to having used HGH in the past, in an attempt to recover from an elbow injury. however, as Mark McGwire famously said, “I am not here to talk about the past.”
In 34 starts last year, Pettite was a valuable horse for the Yankees. he was an absolute stud in the second half, compiling an 11-3 record with a 3.84 ERA. During a crucial playoff push in August, Pettite was 6-0 with a 2.36 ERA. Similarly to Wang, Pettite also fared better under the lights, with an 11-5 record at night and a 4-4 mark during the day. against the Indians in the playoffs, Pettite was masterful, going 6 innings, allowing no runs, and striking out 5. The game turned when the midges came out and the Yankees couldn’t hold the lead, which unfairly will stand out as one of Torre’s biggest gaffes.
This year will be one of the more pressure-filled campaigns for Pettite. He will be expected to shoulder a lot of big games for the Yankees, and will have the media spectre of the HGH scandal around him for a while. Pettite is the Yankee’s only lefty starter, and one of their few steal-preventers. He will begin the season on the DL retroactive to 3/21, as he has been bothered by back spasms recently. However, he has looked good in recent minor-league starts, and will be ready to take the ball for his first turn on Saturday 4/5.
2008 Prediction- 16-8, 3.98 ERA, 143 K
Mike Mussina- 2007 Stats- 11-10, 152 IP, 188 hits, 35 BB, 5.15 ERA, 1.467 WHIP
By the most general measures, Mike Mussina had one of the worst seasons of his career last year. As a fan watching the games, Mussina did not look as skilled as he has been in seasons past, and his mechanics were off frequently. Mussina has always been a pitching craftsman, and he frequently refused to adjust his pitches to the calls of the umpires. This would get him behind in counts, and force him to throw more-hittable strikes.
Mussina pitched slightly better at home than on the road, but neither were outstanding. He was hit harder in the second half, but somehow posted a 7-4 record. He finally seemed to get his act together in September/October, going 3-0 with a 3.49 ERA.
In the post-season, Mussina came in for an ineffective Wang in Game 4 and pitched 4.2 innings, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits and striking out 3.
I am of the opinion that this will be a bounce-back season of sorts for Mussina. While he is entering his 18th professional season, and is coming off his worst ever in 2007, I see enough for a solid 4-5 starter in Mussina. If the likes of Glavine, Maddux, Wells, Moyer…etc can be effective late in their careers, there is no reason not to believe that a pitcher who went 15-7 with a 3.51 in 2006,and who has the Yankee lineup behind him can’t come back and grab some wins pitching well.
2008 Prediction- 12-6, 4.22 ERA, 129 K
Phil Hughes- 2007 Numbers- 5-3, 72 IP, 64 hits, 29 BB, 4.46 ERA, 1.280 WHIP
An injury to Hughes on May 1st while throwing a no-hitter against Texas curtailed Hughes first season in pinstripes. However, in the small sample of games, Hughes showed the potential that has him as the leading candidate for the #3 spot in the Yankee rotation. Hughes won his last 3 decisions, and the team won in the last 5 games he started. He went 3-0 in September with a 2.73 ERA.
Hughes’ home record was excellent, as he posted a 4-1 mark with a 3.11 ERA. He too did well at night, going 5-2 with a 3.46 ERA.
There is a small sample of work upon which to judge Hughes, and most predictions about him a purely speculative. As such, I am going to go with my gut. I think Hughes will be somewhat innings-limited, and will be treated with the caution of a pitcher the Yankees hope to have around for years to come.
2008 Predictions- 15-10, 3.75 ERA, 130 K, 28 GS
Ian Kennedy- 2007 Stats 1-0, 19 IP, 13 hits, 9 walks, 15K, 1.89 ERA, 1.158 WHIP
There is a very small sample of work upon which to base my 2008 predictions for Ian Kennedy, as he had a brief stint with the Yankees at the end of last year. His first start of 2008 has obviously come and gone, and did not go very well. So how do we project Mr. Kennedy?
Kennedy has shown a propensity for both the walk and the strikeout, as he struck out 6 and seven in two good starts in 2007, and has walke 4 batters twice in his 4 career starts. Kennedy obviously showed enough to the Yankees brass that he started 3 games in September last year, and was kept as the #5 starter for the club this year. If they were less sure of him, we likely would have seen a Bartolo Colon-type brought in to plug the hole.
Kennedy does not have overpowering stuff, but when he is going right he has great control of all his pitches. Of the three youngsters on the squad, I believe that Kennedy is the furthest from being an impact player this year.
2008 Prediction- 6-5, 4.58 ERA, 88 K, 25 GS
April 2, 2008 at 10:16 pm |
After watching the Moose tonight, you might want to up that era to about 5.10 and make that record 8-11. Sorry, but he’s got nothing left in the tank.
April 3, 2008 at 8:19 am |
I still think he has enough in the tank for a 4-5 starter. Toronto is a good team, and has good hitters. (not a AAAA team in Miami) Mussina can get some easier wins on the day after night games, and get away days, and his knuckle-curve looked good when he snapped it. He’ll never be a front-line guy again, I’ll give you that.
April 3, 2008 at 9:14 am |
The Marlins are a AAAA team on account of their pitching (which the “genious” Joe Girardi helped to destroy) and fielding, not their hitting. While I agree with you that Toronto is a better team (better than the Yanks too by the way, as I predict 2nd place for the Blue Jays and a close 3rd for Yanks), name me one hitter on that team better than Hanley Ramirez (or even close). Who on Toronto had more homers in 07 than Dan Uggla? Florida’s offense would destory the Moose — who had to be the worst pitcher to take the mound on game 2 this year. Flat 84 mph fastball with a slow-breaking curve and nothing else. Not gonna fool anyone.
Some nice glove work from the Giambino last night. How many more days of his looking like a beer-leaguer down there before you drop those lofty projections of your? Maybe he’d be more conmfortable at first if there was a keg in the coaches box.
Don’t disagree with your Wang projections,although you might be a little high on the K’s. But who cares how a pitcher gets his outs, so long as he gets them. But I think you are a little optimistic on Pettitte. I doubt at his age he’ll impove on his performance over the past two years. And I’d expect a DL stint or two this year as well.
April 3, 2008 at 9:47 am |
I was going to respond, but I felt a pop in my hamstring. Its ok though, because my best thoughts about baseball were written years ago. I’ll be back in 4-6 weeks.
April 3, 2008 at 10:16 am |
Very good. Made be laugh. I expect 6-8 weeks on that hammy. We’ll see him in June. Dude, you gotta finish the projections soon so you’re on the record as to wins and losses before we get too far into the season. I’m going with 86 wins for the Yanks and third place behind Boston and the Blue Jays. I though the Mets were a 97 win (and first place) team before the Pedro injury, now I’m thinking 93 (and first place).
When are you gonna set a date?
April 3, 2008 at 10:26 am |
86? Seriously? even though the team has averaged 98 wins the last 7 years(and 97 for the last 12)? 1 win less than the 2000 season, when they basically stopped trying in September and steamrolled to the title anyway?
I’ll get hughes Kennedy and the pen up later today. Jays might be 2nd, but its not in front of the Yanks.
April 3, 2008 at 1:09 pm |
Pitching and defense wins. Yanks have neither. They also have a tricky combination of players who are either too old or too young. Not enough guys in their prime. It will be interesting to see if the genius can guide them as well as Torre if they get off to a slow start like last year. I’m not so sure — so you better hope for a faster start.
The moose sucked last year, and Pettitte was merely mediocre. This year they are nothing more than one year older. If Moose pitches like last year (which he will) and Pettitte goes on the DL (which he has and will again), what happens then? Hughes is gonna be special, but he’ll have his struggles this year like almost every other 22 year old pitcher in the history of the game — 3.60 era and 13-14 wins. Kennedy might turn out to be good (I’m reserving judgment), but he’ll really struggle this year like every other rookie finesse pitcher in the history of the game. As for those ludicrous comparisons to Greg Maddux I’ve been hearing from Yankee fans masquerading as reporters, check out Maddux’s ERA his rookie year. Pretty scary stuff. Kennedy will not be much better in his rookie year — 10 wins and a 4.75 era.
Giambi sucks. Just a god-awful player right now. Posoda will come back to earth. Jeter is still excellent, but he starting to show his age, and it’s only downhill from here for a 34 year old shortstop. Damon is mediocre at best. Matsui is highly overrated and really only had one great month last year (July’s 12 homers?). He’s also showing his age. Melky is overrated — brings needed energy to a veteran squad, but little else. Abreu is a very nice three hitter and ok fielder (too chickenshit of the wall to be considered good). Arod is the best player in the game. Cano is a young stud. Bench is mediocre.
Red Sox will win about 92, Blue Jays 87, Yanks 86.
April 3, 2008 at 1:49 pm |
Our Hughes projections are almost identical.
I’m looking at this season as a rebuilding year — Yankee style of course. They’re trying to develop three young pitchers while getting some bad contracts off the books (Moose, Giambi, Pavano) so they can make their run next year. I expect them to stick with the young guys no matter how bad things get and not to take on any more money at the deadline. This will enable them to sign Tex for first base next year and have the core in place for a new, youger pitching staff.
April 3, 2008 at 2:36 pm |
I think it wasn’t,but to be clear, the “Yankee fan masquerading as a reporter” wasn’t a backhand at me was it?
Boiling your comments down, Jeter, A-rod, Cano and Abreu can hit, Wang and Hughes can pitch, and the rest of the Yankees are mediocre to awful?
I think that you are being premature in some cases and just wrong in others. Pettite was, to quote myself I guess, “an absolute stud in the second half, compiling an 11-3 record with a 3.84 ERA. During a crucial playoff push in August, Pettite was 6-0 with a 2.36 ERA”
Thats hardly mediocre. Josh beckett was 9-5 in the second half. CC was 7-5. Pettite won 2 and 4 more decisions in the second half than the clear cy young candidates. Sorry, not buying mediocre.
Melky is a young player who goes and gets it in the field. He switch hits enough to create favorable late-inning matchups against managers who tend to do that kind of thing, and he’ll take away as many hits with the glove as he may leave at the plate.
Johnny Damon was 11th among CF in OPS, due to a low slg. His OBP was 8th, as were his SB. He was 7th in runs scored, and 11th in hits. Again, mediocre is not appropriate here. You are going to go nuts on this, but compare his batting to your leadoff hitter in 150 less at bats for Damon. Put whatever spin you want but if they come to the plate the same number of times, Damon’s numbers are right there. (forget steals because I don’t care about them)
April 3, 2008 at 3:30 pm |
No, not you — I’m talking the guys on 1050, YES and the NY times.
Pettitte’s era and whip have been pretty mediocre two years running. I expect him to get worse this year, although I’d still take him in a big game.
A 3.84 era for the second half is anything but studly.
Damon is no more a centerfielder than I am an “after” model for nutrasystem. His offensive numbers are mediocre at best when moved from center to left.
Don’t get too excited about Melky’s defense –it-s good, but not great. He’s the third best defensive centerfielder in this town. Endy Chavez is the best. Beltran is second. For every nice play Melky makes, he screws up another by taking a bad route on a ball. His play on Aaron Hill’s double on opening night is a good example.
The only players I think are awful are Giambi and Mussina. And I’ll stand by that statement all year long.
And Jorge “the Human Pass Ball” Posada is still one of the best hitting catchers in the game, and while Matsui is overrated, he’s still a clutch player. By the way, I loved your stat in your preview about passed balls and wild pitches. Inasmuch as a catcher can be responsible for many of the pitches deemed wild pitches by the official scorers, how does Posada’s total passed balls plus wild pitches compare to other catchers with similar number of games caught last year. I’d love to see that stat b/c it always seems to me that he is really bad at preventing wild pitches.
As for Jose Reyes, big year this year. I can just feel it coming.
April 3, 2008 at 3:55 pm |
What about damon as a leadoff hitter?
as for posada- comprable passed balls- bengie Molina and Miguel olivo with 16, AJ Pierzynski with 14 and Jason Kendall with 13.
wild Pitches- Molina had 41 (134 Games)
Olivo- 51 (122 games)
AJ- 32 (136 games)
Kendall-38 (137 games)
Posada- 52 (144 Games)
April 5, 2008 at 8:50 am |
What happened to the Kennedy projections? Did you have to re-consider after last night’s debacle? My 10 win, 4.75 era projection is looking rather good right now.
Have fun at the game today. Your offense should be ready to break-out against Edwin Jackson.
April 9, 2008 at 1:18 pm |
So what’s your final projection as to wins and losses? Or are you hedging your bets while watching an elderly team with bad pitching and too many DH’s succomb to predictable injuries while it stumbles out of the gate against second division squads such as the Rays and Royals?
I’m pretty down on both NY teams right now. Alou, Pedro and El Duque. I knew they’d get hurt, but this was too early and all at the same time. And Willie is just the dumbest fuck to ever manage a team. The team was good enough in 06 to overcome his stupidity, but those days are over. And to make matters worse, it appears that the team has assumed his boring, don’t worry, we’ll get them tomorrow personality. I can’t stand him any more. There’s just not that much there offensively after the big three. Castillo is only effective when Reyes is on base. Church is okay. Schneider is just a defensive player. Pagan is a fifth outfielder. I’m reserving judgment on Delgado.
Yanks — their pitching and defense looks as bad as I said they would be. No first baseman at all. Matsui can’t catch/Damon can’t throw. Jeter as slow as ever at short. Posoda never could catch, now he can’t throw either. And their age is showing with the early-season injuries to Giambi, Jeter and Posoda. Expect that to continue all year long. And don’t be surprised if Posoda’s shoulder ends up being big trouble.
I would not be shocked if both teams miss the playoffs. While it’s generally too early to make such statements, there are trends you can see developing with these veteran squads that are alarming to say the least.