Upon Baseball Bullets for Discussion

• After signing him to a huge 7-year $126 million contract, watching him go 11-13 in 2007, and start this season  0-6, how much do you think the SF Giants are regretting signing Barry Zito?
• With John Smoltz headed to the DL, and discussing possibly becoming a closer again for the Braves, is their rotation in trouble?
• Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes currently have no wins between them. Does the bode poorly for the season, or is it the by-product of a tough beginning to the season affecting the team as a whole, and specifically these two young guys?
• Is it time to stop trusting the all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman in a big spot? Recent blow ups that come to mind include the All-Star Game, a potential playoff clincher against the Rockies, and twice this year.
• A big deal is being made about the many hot shot pitching prospects who have been brought up early in the season by teams. Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Max Scherzer seem to be the first of the crop. With the young arms in NY, Boston, and Chicago, rising stars like Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez and Cole Hammels, could the next phase of pitching-dominated MLB be on the way?
• The Mets vs fans thing is not going to end well for someone. Delgado? Willie?  someone else? If the A-rod saga has shown us anything, its that NY fans are not afraid to boo long and loud. Personally, I understand the subtle “f you” by Delgado in refusing to curtain call, but I don’t know how wise it was.

So what do the readers think? Anyone? Bueller?

Upon the Giant’s Draft

Hey Sherm, I am pretty optimistic about the draft for the G-men. I think Manningham is a huge steal, and that he and Plax will be able to dominate. Veteran-laden team coming off a championship is a good spot for a really talented kid who was dumb and smoked too much pot in college.

Kenny Phillips looks like a decent player, and the Giants did need a solid guy in the secondary. The QB from Kentucky should be a good practice squad guy, and push carr and fat boy.

Whats your take?

Upon Getting Rid of Bad Money

Attention CC Sabbathia, John Lackey, Mark Texeria, Rich Harden, Vlad Guerrero….

The NY Yankees will be shedding  $89,916,266 in contract money at the end of this year. They will also be opening a new staduim that should rank as the best in baseball. Just an FYI. 

Upon the 2008 NBA MVP- The Big 4

 

This took longer to get up then I intended. Sorry for the delay.

With yesterday’s honorable mention MVP candidates discussed, its time to tackle the 4 candidates who are most likely to receive serious consideration for the award. Before I start though, I have a bone to pick with the MVP award in general. It bothers me how a groundswell develops for a candidate, essentially created by media-hype. This occurs in all sports, and often results in a deserving candidate getting stiffed.

Sherm and I went round and round on Matt Holliday vs David Wright vs Jimmy Rollins for NL MVP last year. It is my opinion that Matt Holliday was the most valuable player based on any objective standard of performance. As we know, he didn’t win.

Steve Nash beat out Shaq during O’Neal’s first year with the Heat, despite the overwhelming evidence that Miami would have been god-awful without him and were a dangerous team with him (who just happened to win the title the next year.) 

I consider the baseball-esque stat of Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) to be of huge help when determining the most valuable player in any league. The VORP essentially looks at what a team would be like if you took away the player in question and replaced him with an average player at his position.

Anyway, onto the candidates. Since i was slow in getting this up, I can also look at their performances in Game 1 of the playoffs for a little validation, even though playoff stats don’t count.

 Kevin Garnett- KG spent the last 12 years in Minnesota, toiling for the Timberwolves and getting out of the first round of the playoffs only once in 8 consecutive trips. His stats were often Herculean (24 ppg, 18.7 rpg in 01-02) but his teams just didn’t clear the hurdle. Garnett faced some criticism for not wanting the ball at the killer moment, and for fading from the game winner. While the MVP award is not based on post-season play, these stats do factor into the mind of voters.

Before the 2007-2008 NBA season, Garnett was traded to the Boston Celtics, and what followed was the greatest one year turn around in terms of wins and losses in NBA history. the Celtics finished 66-16, a year after finishing 24-58. 42 games is a stunning turn-around, anda fantastic team achievement. however, I am not sure that the team’s success makes Garnett the MVP.

I think that without question, KG changed what was a losing culture in Boston.  The team was god-awful last year, and now own the best record in the NBA. Garnett plays like a mad-man, and his spirit seems to have infected the team. He put up 18.8 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.4 spg, 1.25 bpg, .539 FG% and .801 FT%. These are big numbers on arguably the best team in the game. His immeasurable impact has also done wonders for the team, toughening up softer players, making sulky players bust their butts, and convincing veterans like Sam Cassell and P.J. Brown to join the Celtic effort.  It seems that the franchise was rejuvenated by his attitude, and basketball in Boston is without a doubt back.

Another big case to be made in Garnett’s favor is made by VORP. The tangible numbers could have been put up by some other PF in the league, but the intangible effects would be nearly impossible to duplicate. However, in an MVP vote, Shaq’s first season in Miami prove that an intangible impact is often overlooked.

So with big numbers, and huge intangibles, whats holding Garnett back in my opinion?

The Celtics were in full-on tank mode at the end of last year, in the hopes of landing either Kevin Durant or Greg Oden with one of the first two picks. Instead, they landed the #5 pick, which became Ray Allen. People seem to be strangely over looking these two aspects when touting Garnett as a possible MVP. The Celtics lost 8 of 9 to close the season, including 7 in a row. At another point in the season they dropped 18 straight.  Now this year they added, a player in Ray Allen  who provides 17.4 ppg, nearly 40% from 3-point range, and 90% from the FT line. Plus, team veteran Paul Pierce chipped in with a tidy 19.6 ppg, 5 rpg, 1.26 steals, 4.5 assists, .392 3p%, and .843 FT%.

So the Celtics did have an amazing team turn around, but they also tanked a large part of last year, added a perennial All-star/superstar  in Allen, and got almost 40 more games out of Pierce than a season before.

I also think that in comparison to his competition, you have to say that you would rely on the other 3 more in a big spot, and could count on them more as well. Garnett doesn’t get the ball on his own team with the game on the line, and plays with two All-Stars who deserve credit for the team turn-around.

Amazing year for KG, would be nice to see him get a ring for being awesome for a long time, but he’s not my MVP.

Upon Getting My Paul O’Neill Jersey Back

 

There was an unusual, and most welcome sight during last night’s Yankee-Boston game. When reliever LaTroy Hawkins trotted out from the bullpen, he was wearing a jersey with 22 on the back.

Now keen observers may have noted that Hawkins had bagun the year wearing the number 21. Hawkins claimed it was to honor Roberto Clemente, who died just days after the reliever was born. He had previously worn 32 for most of his career, but the Yankees have retired that number in honor of Elston Howard. Therefore, Hawkins grabbed the number 21, which had originally been given to Morgan Ensberg during Spring Training. Ensberg had changed numbers quietly before the beginning of the regular season. Perhaps Hawkins should have taken note of this move.

Among most Yankee fans, 21 is Paul O’Neill’s number, and the popular consensus appears to be that it should remain so. Fans were extremely displeased to see Hawkins wearing the number of ”the Warrior”, and began chanting for O’Neill when Hawkins pitched poorly early in the season.

 Micheal Kay explained the change from 21 to 22 during the Yankee broadcast yesterday, and a printed account can be found here. Apparently team leaders Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera approached Hawkins, and explained that prehaps the number was not worth getting on the bad-side of Yankee fans, especially with no track record on which to fall back. hawkins apparently agreed with their reasoning

“”I figure if it’s important enough for Jeter and Mariano and some other veterans to ask me about it, it’s not worth it to keep wearing the number,” Hawkins said. ” Lo and behold, Hawkins switched to 22 and he pitched two scoreless innings, struck out 2, and dropped his ERA 2 points.

This development is doubly good for me, as my authentic, offical, #21 jersey is now a Paulie o jersey again!

For any future Yankee players, just remember, #21 belongs to:

 

 

 

 

Upon the 2008 NBA MVP- The Honorable Mention

That’s right, I do write about more than the Yankees on TWG!

As the NBA season draws to a close, and the playoff matchups are settled, the annual debate over the player and coach awards begins. The most prominent award is the Most Valuable Player, and this season features a hotly contested race. Plenty of columnists and websites will weigh-in with their opinions, and I will venture to do the same. From what I have seen thus far, I think my personal pick is not in line with popular opinion.

2006-2007

The reigning MVP from 2006-2007 is Dallas Maverick Dirk Nowitzki. Last year he averaged:

24.6 ppg, 8.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, .8 blocks, .7 steals, .904 FT%, .416 3p%, .502 FG%

The Mavericks finished with by far the league’s best record, 67-15, 6 games better than their closest competitiors. In the playoffs, the Mavs were shocked by the upstart Golden State Warriors, but MVPs are not decided in the post season (for better or worse).

This year Nowitzki posted another strong statistical season:

23.8 ppg, 8.7 rpg, 3.5 apg, .9 blocks, .7 steals, .878 FT%, .364 FG%, .482 FG%

It is a commentary on the MVP award when the reigning winner can put up a very similar season the following year, have his team in the playoffs again, and not even be in anyone’s discussion regarding the MVP for 2007-2008. Seriously, I have not heard Nowitzki mentioned once.  The -17 win differential from a season ago is the most likely culprit.

2007-2008

I will narrow the field down to the players whom I feel have been the most valuable to their respective teams. This takes many players who had fantastic seasons out of contention. Honorable mention goes out to:

• Atlanta’s Josh Smith (who has become a heck of a baller and helped the Hawks back to the playoffs)
• Baron Davis (who along with Stephen Jackson got the GSW to 50 wins but missed out on the playoffs),
• Tim “Yes my numbers may not jump off the page, but I am still right at 20 and 10 and I have 4 rings, are you willing to to count me out?’ Duncan,
• Tracy McGrady who helped to guide the second longest  winning streak in NBA history in the absence of Yao Ming
• Antawn Jamison- Seriously, check his numbers out. 21.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.34 steals and his team made the playoffs again despite missing Arenas and Butler for long stretches
• Dwight Howard- Becoming the monster he was predicted to be. Howard has down-low dominance that only Shaq can understand.
• Marcus Camby- Why Camby? Because on a team that thinks defense is a suggestion on many nights, Camby hauls down 13.2 boards (10.3 on the defensive glass), blocks 3.6 shots a game, and kicks in 1.08 steals for good measure. Without Camby, Ernest Hemingway could  write a novel about all the matadors on D.

Under the Radar Honorable Mention- Shaquille O’Neal

I know, I know, you think I’ve lost it right? Far-past his prime Shaq for Honorable Mention MVP. 13.7 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 1.5 bpg, .592 FG% (4th in the NBA oh by the way). These are respectable stats for a former MVP who is on the downside of his career. A far cry from the most dominant player in basketball history which he used to be. So why would I place Shaq as an honorable mention MVP? The answer, is Amare Stoudemire.

Putting aside what I predict will be a resurgent playoff performance from Shaq, O’Neal also allowed Amare to move back to his power position. Since Shaq has come over the Suns, Stoudamire is averaging 30 ppg, 9 rpg, 1.7 bpg, .588 FG%. Shaq has been working to convince amare that he is the baddest big man in the game, and Amare appears to be listening. Once again, as with Penny Hardaway, Kobe, and Wade, a talented player is thriving next to O’Neal. Shaq’s presence, experience,and reputation command attention and respect, which has consistently freed his superstar partners to do what they do best.

The trading of Shawn Marion for O’Neal settled the alpha dog fight between Matrix and Amare. Shaq came in and bestowed his blessing on Stoudemire (much as he did with Wade) and the Suns got busy.

 

Now, onto the big 4. Actually…. maybe tomorrow. 

 

 

 

 

Upon the 2008 Yankee Preview- the Prediction

The AL East figures to be one of the toughest divisions in baseball, if not the toughest. The Sox are the defending champs, the Jays have arms and bats, the Rays have vastly improved, and the Orioles are currently the surprise starters in all of baseball.

The Yankees have gotten much younger in the pitching staff, replacing Clemens with Hughes, and the Igawa, Clippard, DeSalvo, Rasner pu-pu platter with ian Kennedy. Early returns have been mixed, but I don’t prognosticate based on the first week of the season.

The lineup is not any younger, and has started slowly. Again, I do not think one week is a good indicator for the season.

Girardi is a new manager, but unproven in the AL and as the skipper in NY. His style differs from Torre, and for better or worse is yet to be seen.

I think that with strong young arms and veterans backing them up, with a lineup that will pile up the runs, and with a division that allows for no relaxing, I think the Yankees will be a driven team. I love the end-game with Chamberlain and Rivera.

2008 prediction- 98-64, 1st in AL East

The others- AL Central- Cleveland

AL West- Seattle

Wild Card- Boston

 

NL East- Mutts

NL Central- chicago

NL West- Arizona

NL Wild Card-  Milwaukee

WS- Yankees vs Arizona

Champs- you know who

Upon the 2008 Yankee Preview- The Bullpen

The bullpen for the Yankees has the potential to be either a big Achilles’ heel, or a huge advantage for the team. the potential for excellence is there, as is the possibility of trouble. Let’s look at the main players:

The Closer

  Mariano Rivera-

The gold-standard for relief pitchers is  entering his 14th season as a member of the Yankees, after signing a new contract in the off-season. There was no chance the Yankees were going to let him get away, and he indicated that he had no desire to leave.

The April/May stretch last year was the worst for Rivera, as he lost twice, had only 1 save, and a 10.57 ERA. He allowed only 6 runs in the following 3 months, and only 25 for the entire year. Still, his 3.15 ERA was his highest ever as a relief pitcher, as he had to work to overcome a rough start.

I don’t feel I need to do much in the way of a preview for a man whom I believe is the greatest closer of all-time.

2008 Prediction- 3-2, 40 Saves, 1.98 ERA

For the rest of the bullpen, I am not going to include stats predictions, as the middle/long relief is not as stat based in my opinion, and I am not a great predictor of ERA.

The 8th Inning Phenom-

  Joba Chamberlain- Much as a young Rivera was called upon to provide a bridge to John Wetteland in 1996, Joba is now providing an 8th inning hammer before Mo in the 9th. Chamberlain rocketed onto the Yankee scene last year with a dominating performance out of the bullpen. He allowed 1 earned run in 24 innings pitched, with 12 hits, 6 walks, and 34 strikeouts.

With a fastball that hits triple digits on the radar gun, mixed in with filthy breaking stuff, Joba wrested the mantle of “most promising young pitcher” away from Phil Hughes. He has been projected as a front-of-the-rotation starter down the road, but I can’t help but see him following Rivera’s career path.

There has been a debate over having a power ace at the top of the rotation (ala Sabathia or Beckett), which Wang is not, vs having the game essentially be over after the 7th inning. I find myself in the latter camp, especially with CC coming on the free-agent market after this season. With a top 4 of Wang, CC, Hughes, Kennedy, would it be better to have Joba to make it a huge 5, or to groom the eventual untouchable replacement for Mariano?

 The Veteran Question Marks

 LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth- That queasy feeling that Yankee fans get during the 6-8th inning is most likely a product of the entrance of one of the two pitchers to the left. Farnsworth has been with the team the past two years, and had a tumultuous existence, including an episode where he bizarrely burned all of his equipment. His 4.80 ERA in 2007 is nothing to be pleased with, and pitching the 8th inning did not seem to suit him. While he does have a power arm, Farnsworth has been criticized for throwing the ball straight for the sake of power. His earned runs and walks were nearly identical the last two years, but his strikeouts dropped precipitously.

LaTroy Hawkins spent his first 8 years as a Twin, then bounced around the Cubs, Giants, Orioles and Rockies before landing with the Yankees this offseason. In a horrible decision, Hawkins decided to pick up the #21 jersey that Morgan Ensberg wore during the Spring. He claims that he wants to honor Roberto Clemente, but as any Yankee fan will tell you, #21 is Paul O’Neill’s number. (interestingly, Hawkins ERA stands at a robust 21.00 after a shaky start to the season. coincidence?) He saw limited action in Colorado last year, doing most of his pitching in the 7th and 8th innings.  Like Rivera, he had a rough April/May, and needed to be slightly above average to make his overall numbers average for the season. One concern is the frequently touted NL-AL transition. However, as a late-inning guy, Hawkins was likely to see the pitcher pinch-hit for more frequently than a starter would.

Both Hawkins and Farnsworth have struggled a bit early this year, though it is very early. What they have also done is open the door for:

 

The Young Unknowns 

 (From Left) Brian Bruney, Billy Traber, Ross Ohlendorf

Bruney embraced a workout plan this offseason, and looks lighter than ever. His mechanics are strong this year, and he has thus far only resembled the “Good Bruney” whom we saw in flashes last season. in 2006 he was lights-out in 20+ innings, in 2007 he got more hittable in his 50+ innings. Outlook is good so far. I hope the weight loss is a sign of dedication.

Ohlendorf was a throw-in on the Big Unit deal, and has not had much of a chance to prove himself. However, in their small samples of work so far, I’ll take Ohlendorf over the Hawkins/Farnsworth duo.

Billy Traber is the lefty experiment in 2008, joining the ranks of Mike Meyers, Mke Stanton, Sean Henn…etc. He is needed in a bullpen bereft of other lefties. Lefty batters hit .176 against Traber last year, a trend the Yankees hope to continue.

We will see how the Yankee bullpen shakes out this year, and when the joba move is made. For now, the 6th and 7th look better in the hands of the kids than the vets, and the 8th and 9th have been game over.