With a 9-4 victory over the United States last night, Japan punched their ticket to the World Baseball Classic final against South Korea. You may not have noticed the elimination our “national team”, even though many MLB stars played for the USA, and the game was carried on ESPN. With baseball being ostensibly the national passtime, and national bragging rights on the line, why does it seem that so few people cared? Why does a good idea in theory seem like it will have a tough time staying relevant. I have a few theories.
March has long belonged to NCAA basketball, and likely always will. You can throw just about anything against the Big Dance, and chances are you are going to lose. Anyone catch the debut of the 2009 MLS season? Me neither. (not that many were checking for it). By last night, many from the pool of sports fans who may have cared about the WBC had also seen 4 days of NCAA, a NASCAR race at Martinsville, and a golf tournament. Baseball draws from across demographics, and many of their potential eyes may have already been on sports overload.
Also, this is spring training time for baseball. Teams are sending some of their stars to go and play, but MLB is not an American league. I believe American MLB fans would prefer to see their teams American, Dominican, Puerto Rican, Japanese…etc, players with their MLB uniform on getting ready for the season. Perhaps there is some degree of nationalism for people, but I would contend that it exists largely among fans of the non-US teams.
It seems many MLB teams are not keen on having their stars playing hard, meaningful games, when they should be gradually easing into game shape. Several of the world’s best players are not in action at the WBC. This tournament is a far cry from the World Cup in soccer, or the rugby tournament, or the Olympics. What we do have is a curiosity, more than a nation vs nation battle for supremacy. Would this idea work better in November? Possibly, but then you have the worn out stars from playoff teams who may be out of commission.
USA basketball shook off several years of embarassment in the 2008 Olympics by preparing for several years to create “The Redeem Team”. We are convinced of our superiority on the world basketball stage, and worked to create a team that would put it on display. The best American players were selected to try out, and the best team was selected based on team-cohesion as much as individual ability. The result was a dominating gold medal performance. While the NBA does have a significant international presence, the game is still largely American, and its best players are still mostly produced in this country. Not so with baseball.
MLB teams have embraced the international player fully, and the best teams have a large mix of players. Take the Yankees for example:
1B- USA
2B- Dominican
SS-USA
3B- USA/Dominican
RF-USA or USA
CF- DR or USA
LF- USA or Japan
C-PR
SP- 4-USA 1-Taiwan
Closer- Panama
I don’t know anyone who likes a Yankee more or less because of his ethnicity, though I am sure there are some fans who hail from the same non-US countries as some of the Yankees who support their countrymen more.
The US is an immigrant nation by-and-large, and even those who have been here for generations have grown up around people from many nations. The USA is included in the WBC because we are credited as the nation who created the game, and our country is home to the biggest baseball league and the best players come here to play. Even the Japanese studs have begun making it over here more and more. However, we do not have a singular ethnocentrism to appeal to, which might make fans flock more to the WBC.
The USA is more state and city-centric, and in the case of baseball it makes more sense to root for our hometown than our home nation.
March 24, 2009 at 9:30 am |
I actually enjoyed watching it a little this year. First chance to watch competitive baseball since October. And I suspect that while it might just be a “curiosity” here in the US, it means a lot more in many of the other countries. And that’s the point of the tournament from the MLB perspective.
But the US players are clearly not season ready, and the manager is compelled to manage the WBC as a pseudo-spring training in order to get the players season ready for the teams which allowed them to participate. Don’t want to beat a dead horse, but a stud like Rollins at DH while a stiff like Jeter plays short is a joke, and the US paid for it big time.
And it’s too damn long. Why so many days off between games? How about starting it later (around 3/15) so the players (especially the pitchers) can be closer to form, and then play the damn thing in about 10 nights or so. Then the players can return to their teams with a week or more left till opening day. And team management, the media and the fans all need to chill the fuck out about injuries. Shit happens. For every guy who gets hurt participating in the WBC, there is probably one guy who didn’t but might have had he not participated. If Jeter didn’t participate, maybe some 20 year old hits him in the wrist with a 95 mph fastball during a spring game. Who the hell knows what’s gonna happen. The Mets probably win the WS in 06 if Duaner Sanchez didn’t get in a cab in Miami. You never know how or when someone is going to get hurt, and the threat of injury is way overplayed. It’s baseball for crying out loud. You stand around for 3 hours, swing a bat a few times and run 90 feet. Big deal.
March 24, 2009 at 9:50 am |
This anti-Jeter thing is getting a little out of hand, no? You are beating a dead horse. Yes, Rollins is the better overall SS these days. What about the fact that Jeter is arguably the face of Major League Baseball, at least from a positive light? And that he lent his considerable presence to the team? So the US came a game short of the WBC final, blame Jeter. Don’t credit him for keeping Wright and Rollins on good terms when both admitted they were concerned about the proximity of their lockers, but felt relieved when they saw Jeter was between them.
“This is when Henry Kissinger arrived, to set everyone’s mind, and nerves, at ease. That’s the name Rollins gave Derek Jeter, anyway; it was when Jeter arrived in the clubhouse, all ease and cool and general bonhomie, that he walked over to Rollins and laughed about the way three of Team USA’s lockers had been arranged.
Wright on one side. Rollins on another side. Jeter in the middle
That,” Rollins said, laughing, “is why you’re the captain.”
So your stud felt better about playing and being in the clubhouse because he had your “stiff” as a Captain. Quantify that with sabremetrics.
March 24, 2009 at 10:48 am |
And who made an error in the bottom of the eighth in the deciding game which led directly to three runs for Japan? Don’t need sabermetrics to see Jeter’s off-line throw to first on a routine play that cemented the loss/elimination. And, at this point of his career, he is a “stiff” in the field. There is just no denying that anymore. It happens to everyone when they reach a certain age. And my posts last week were not about Jeter-bashing, it was about dealing with him when his contract is up next year. His play the past week or so has brought that issue to light because it is becoming more evident by the moment that he cannot be expected to play shortstop for a team with championship aspirations much longer. Hard to win without defense at that position. Luckily for the Yanks, they added 3 strikeout pitchers to their rotation this year. A rotation of groundball pitchers would have been a recipe for disaster.
But this wasn’t about Jeter, it was about the US team not being managed and/or prepared to play to win due to the timing of the tournament. Jeter was just the most obvious example. Jimmy Rollins is a much, much, much better player right now. And it’s not even close. Rollins is the third best SS in baseball (and number 4 is not close), and one of the best defensive shortstops as well. Jeter barely makes the top ten right now, and is one of the worst defensively. Yet, Jeter was butchering balls in the field during the deciding game, while Rollins was DH’ing, because America was not being managed to win. The team was being managed to appease personalities and to prepare players for the regular season.
Yes, Jeter deserves commendation for participating in the WBC and lending his “face” and stardom to the tournament (his participation is an example of why I always say I respect him), but if you want to actually win these games, he should be DH’ing while J-Roll is in the field. But due to the timing of the tournament, the Yanks need him to be getting reps at short during the WBC to prepare for the season, and the American team was thus compromised by his defensive deficiencies.
That was my point. But god forbid anyone says anything negative about Jeter. He’s not Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays like everyone pretends. He is nothing more than a Paul Moliter-type HOF’er. Which is pretty damn good. As for being “anti-Jeter”, didn’t I volunteer last week that he is better than Cal Ripken, who was a first-ballot HOF’er?
And I think it is pretty obvious that DW and J-Roll were joking around.
And for the record, Kissenger goes to his right better than Jeter, but not his left.
March 24, 2009 at 12:04 pm |
Who is this mysterious “everyone” you keep referring to? Who makes Jeter out to be Willie Mays? you are railing against a perception that i don’t believe exists.
Derek Jeter is a good to great offensive player/ #2 hitter, who became an essential piece to a baseball dynasty at a young age. The Yankees don’t win 4 of 5 World Series without him.
Lets talk about Rollins being “a much, much, much better player right now.” I can only assume you mean defensively, or that you think the disparity in defense is worth that much when comparing the players. You follow enough baseball to know that they are similar players offensively, and Jeter faces much tougher pitching in the AL.
You may be viewing Jeter as being in an inexorable decline, relative to Rollins, but I choose to look at what type of ballplayers both have been at the plate.
You must know Rollins has never hit over .300. Jeter has only done that a time or 10.
Or that Rollins has topped and 800 OPS just 3 times, and 900 never. Jeter- 10 seasons of 800 or better, and two over 900.
Or that Jeter’s runner-up MVP 2006 clearly outpaces Rollins MVP 2007
Or that .143 in the CS and .227 in the world series arent the mark of a clutch player.
I dont think this would indicate to me that one player is immeasurably better than the other. So what I’ll do is let you have your pick: the Jeter Watch or the Phil Coke watch for 2009?
March 24, 2009 at 1:11 pm |
You’re conflating career accomplishments with present day abilities. Jeter extremely accomplished, much more so than Rollins. I am talking “right now.” You are talking “have been.” Tight now, in March 2009, Jeter is one-half the player Rollins is.
March 24, 2009 at 1:37 pm |
And for a guy who says that the only stats that really matter are runs and ribbies, how can you downplay J-Roll’s 139 runs and 94 ribbies in 07?
I don’t get any credit for admitting that Jeter goes to his left better than Kissinger?
As for a Jeter or a Coke Watch, what would we watch? I think Coke will be a solid lefty reliever, just didn’t think he was “post worthy” to borrow from Seinfeld because I don’t see him as a high-ceiling guy. Your excitement didn’t seem to match his skills. As for Jeter, what are we going to watch other than groundball basehits “past-a-diving” Derek Jeter? Pretty hard to follow that statistically. Offensively, he’ll hit in the .290’s, with 10-15 homers and 10-15 stolen bases. Solid, but I’d take Hanley, Jose, J-Roll, Tulo, Hardy, Drew, and Peralta over him in a heartbeat, and maybe Michael Young as well.
In any event, Jeter and Coke are the least of your concerns right now. As a Yankee fan, you should have two concerns: A-Rod’s health and the 8th inning. Without A-Rod’s big bat in the middle of the lineup, you are pretty mediocre from 4-9 (1-3 is excellent, however). And who’s taking the 8th? Bruney and Veres have big-time arms and Bruney certainly seems to have the right makeup, but do they have the consistent control needed from a late inning reliever? Neither of them have shown that yet. Ramirez doesn’t have the stuff for the 8th — great change but his fastball straight and slow. Marte better suited for the seventh or to just get a lefty in the 8th, and I don’t like a lefty in such a big role. Coke just a rookie. I thought Cashman should have signed Juan Cruz when his price dropped so low late in the winter. Had he done that, your pitching would be looking pretty awesome top to bottom. I’d be nervous with Bruney in a one-run game in Tampa or Boston, very nervous. But he has the talent to prove me wrong. Time will tell.
March 24, 2009 at 2:11 pm |
Lets go in reverse order.
Words like mediocre dont seem to describe the lineup 4-9 accurately. You believe that after Damon, Jeter, Tex the lineup is less than average? You are convinced Cano, Posada, Nady, Matsui suck? Cano did have a down year, but produced 70 runs and 72 RBI in a down year. He went for 93 and 97 the year before that. Nady had a career year with the stick, but since you think so, he will undoubtedly suck. Matsui was hurt, but scoring and driving in 100 during all of his healthy seasons means he sucks. Jorge was hurt last year, and has no chance of ever hitting well again.
Now lets look at these bums without the opposite of rose colored glasses you are wearing.
These are players who, in an average season, give you 331 runs scored and 367 RBI. Thats 70 more runs and 100 more RBI than the same positions on the Mets. Using your logic, you are trotting out AA players if the Yankee group is mediocre. You should be worried about trotting out the equivalent of italy’s WBC team. Plus you dont have near the pitching.
Bruney is in competition for the 8th, as are Coke, Albaladejo, David Robertson…etc. I think Bruney and Marte are lefty/righty, with Coke and jonathan on their heels.
I’ll grant that Ransom doesn’t exactly make me confident, but if he’s .250-.260 with glove I’m fine with that. Brett Gardner looks good to me. Swisher will be a good utility man, and spot starter.
The Yankees will miss A-Rod, but have made a world of improvement in the starting pitcher department. this bullpen is a lot better than people thing, and Girardi didn’t commit the same sins Torre did year after year with his quality arms.
March 24, 2009 at 2:14 pm |
And you get no credit for the Kissinger joke. Maybe i’ll appreciate political humor when i get older and start spending my weekends at dance recitals
I did learn he is a life-long Yankee fan though.
March 24, 2009 at 3:53 pm |
I wouldn’t be proud of Kissenger’s association.
Without A-Rod, 4-9 is mediocre at best. Assuming the following are 4-9: Matsui, Nady, Posada, Cano, Ransom & Gardner. Matsui — well below average clean-up hitter. Seriously, how many contending teams are there with a worse clean-up hitter than Hideki Matsui. And I don’t care what he did years ago. I care about what he is going to do this year, at age 34, coming off of major knee surgery. Nady — below average 5th hitter (and Met reject to boot). Posada — average 6th hitter, at best, and he will not be playing every day. Again, I don’t care what he did back in his prime. The questions is: what will he do this year as a 38 year old catcher coming off of serious shoulder surgery? Cano — no problem with Cano in the 7th spot. He may be anywhere from average to excellent. I’m not sure what to expect from him this year. But his on-base % is always low, and he has yet to hit a lot of homers, and there is a chance that the league has learned how to pitch him and his impatient ways. Ransom — career minor leaguer, total scrub, typical crappy 8th place hitter. Gardner — total scrub, the next Jason Tyner.
Since you like Gardner and I expect him to be overmatched by major league pitching, maybe a Gardner Watch is in order. I’ll go with .245 average, 2 homers, 38 rbi.
And that 4-9 is with Posada playing. Add Molina’s .220 bat and it starts looking real ugly.
Starting pitching has the potential to be awesome. Clearly the best in baseball on paper. And I still like Hughes as the sixth man. But the games aren’t played on paper, of course. Bullpen has Mariano and a stable of good young arms, but the 8th inning has the potential to be a real landmine.
As for comparing lineups with the Mets, I’d say even at catcher, maybe a slight edge to the Yanks. You don’t know what you are gonna get from Posada, whereas Schneider is an excellent defender and Castro a hitter. First and second to Yanks. Shortstop and third to the Mets. Left to the Yanks, although I hopped on the Danny Murphy bandwagon a long time ago. Huge edge to Mets in center. Even to slight edge to Mets in right b/c Church is a much better defender than Nady, who sucks in the field. Starting pitching to the Yanks. I’d give the Mets the edge in the bullpen because of Putz.
March 25, 2009 at 8:49 am |
the first problem is that you are comparing the Yankee lineup without A-rod like that will be the case all season. I don’t know what you saw when you examined his hip the last time, but i haven’t heard anything about A-Rod being out all season.
Matsui-Why are you so willing to assume that Matsui will not hit? Its not like he’s being asked to play the field regularly. He started the 2008 season at .322 in April, and .350 in May before he went down with injury. a guy who hits .290+, drives in 100 and scores 100 is fine by me in the 4, particularly as a lefty protected by switch hitters.
Assuming a return to average form, Posada is a much better hitter than Ramon freaking Castro. Stop it, seriously. the combo of Posada/Molina >>>Castro and Bay Ridge Nissan Boy.
And don’t forget that the DH is much more valuable than your crappy starting staff at the plate.
Seriously, you got Johan and who? Mike Pelfry? You might like his potential and raw ability, but he’s not a number 2 on a title contender. He’s Phil Hughes, who is our #6. Hughes hasn’t turned 23 this year, Pelf is 25 and has had one decent year.
Oliver Perez Is Jeckyl and Hyde, with more Hyde. John Maine is a bum. Freddie Garcia is a bum. Livan Hernandez is a bum. You have one definite, one maybe, one 50/50 guy, and bums.
Offensively, you need a lot of guys to duplicate very strong years to contend. You expecting another year like Delgado had? The odds of that are as good as a return to form from Posada and Matsui.
Honestly, you have a lot more question marks than the Yankees do.
March 25, 2009 at 12:28 pm |
Pelfrey is Hughes. Yeah, sure, they had nearly identical seasons last year. When has Phil Hughes logged 200 innings of under 4.00 ERA in a single season? Never. When has he won 13 games? Never. Pelfrey is Wang. That’s a much better comparison. John Maine is a “bum”? Have you seen his 2007 season stats (only full season as a starter)? 15 wins, under 4.00 ERA. What a bum.
Of course, last year you insisted that Kennedy and Hughes would win more games than Perez and Maine. Hughes and Kennedy combined for ZERO wins. Good prediction.
You’re fine with a cleanup hitter who hasn’t had 30 homers in five years and who can’t be reasonably expected to hit more than 18-20 and had a 790 OPS last year? What form is Posada returning to? He’s 38 yrs old. If he hits .265 with 15 hits, you’re lucky. What was Molina’s OPS last year? A lot lower than Castro and Schneider’s. Until A-Rod comes back, your 4-9 is weak.
March 25, 2009 at 12:35 pm |
Here are Ron Schandler’s projections for your vaunted 4-9:
Matsui 69 17 76 .283
Nady 82 25 99 .290
Posada 54 14 67 .279
Cano 80 16 85 .300
Ransom 20 7 20 .225
Gardner 41 0 19 .256
March 25, 2009 at 1:02 pm |
Pelfry is a full 2 years older. Phil Hughes has not had a full season as a pitcher, but its not unusual for a 22 year old pitcher not to log 200 innings. Hughes had a 2 something ERA in the spring, and gave up 5 hits. Pelf is working on a robust 5.09 with 20 hits in 17 innings. Hughes would make the Mets rotation as the 4, Pelfry would be in SWB with Hughes if he were a Yankee.
I’ve seen John Maine pitch this spring, and he’s not just spring bad, he’s flat out bad. He hasn’t logged 200 innings either, and he crapped the bed in the first Met collapse in 2007. 6.32 ERA in August, 5.93 in September. Bum numbers. And you of all people shouldn’t quote wins in one breath about John Maine, and then compare Wang and Pelfry.
What about OP? You happy with a guy like that as your 3?
What about your 5? You happy with the pu-pu platter you got going there? You think those guys belong on a MLB roster? when you are hoping that John Niese might come through, or relying on clear has-beens, you got some big problems.
Rotation wise, I think CC and Johan is a push, with Johan getting the edge is pure skill but CC getting the edge in durability. I won’t argue CC over Johan with all things being equal, because Johan is the better pitcher right now.
Otherwise, who in the Mets rotation even cracks the Yankees 5? Pelf would not bump Wang or Burnett or Joba. Johan, CC, Wang, Burnett, Joba sounds about right.
March 25, 2009 at 1:04 pm |
Give me the full predictions for the Mets and Yankee lineups from Schandler’s List. Seems curious you wouldn’t have…
And how does .290 25 and 99 make Nady anything but very good.
March 25, 2009 at 1:09 pm |
That “bum” Maine went 15-10, with a 3.91 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 180 K’s in his only full season.
I’ll take that from my number 4 starter. No question that the Mets have questions in their rotation and that the rotation is their primary concern. But Santana is as good as there is; Pelfrey is a promising young pitcher looking to build off a very good season; Perez and Maine are both very talented young guys who have had success in the majors; and Livan is an inning eater, who will probably be replaced before the season is over. If Pelfrey can pitch as well as last year and if Maine and Perez pitch as well as they did in 07, it’s a very good rotation. If not, then there will be some problems. But both the bullpen and offense are excellent, and the team defense is pretty darn good (especially up the middle where it matters most). Before you start mocking the Mets’ lineup, don’t forget that they outscored the Yanks last year (without the benefit of a DH).
Last year, I predicted 87 wins for both teams. You laughed at me and predicted 98 for the Yanks and made no prediction for the Mets. So, here are my predictions for this year: Mets 92-70. Yanks 88-74.
March 25, 2009 at 1:26 pm |
Last year, and i quote, you predicted “now I’m thinking 93 (and first place).” for the Mets, and 86 for the Yankees.
Mets had 89, as did the Yankees. Off by 4 and 3 respectively.
I had the Yankees at 98, so i was pretty far off. i also screwed up in thinking the Mets wouldn’t choke it NL EAST away 2 years in a row.
And if you aren’t interested in the past but the present in terms of Jeter, then forget 2007 and look at how miserable Maine looks now.
March 25, 2009 at 1:30 pm |
You’re making me work. Here are the projections for the Mets:
Jose 108 17 62 .298
Castillo 59 1 30 .284
DW 108 31 111 .321
Delgado 89 31 101 .274
C-Belt 108 25 114 .287
Murphy 59 11 62 .282
Church 60 14 60 .281
Schneider 33 8 47 .266
Numbers for Church and Murphy are suppressed by potential platoon with Tatis, and he has Castro stealing AB’s from Schneider. So:
Tatis 27 10 39 .262
Blastro 24 8 32 .269
Yanks 1 – 3 are:
Damon 93 17 67 .291
Jeter 94 12 72 .290
Tex 93 37 109 .297
Since Molina will be stealing AB’s from Posada:
Molina 21 2 16 .232
Yanks 4-9 are as above.
March 25, 2009 at 1:31 pm |
I’m pretty sure that about a week or two into the season, I said 87 each.
March 25, 2009 at 1:47 pm |
So at first glance, DW and CB will have a better year than Tex? Somehow I doubt this.
Mets- 675 runs from the starters/platoon
Yankees- 626 runs from the starters
Now add in the A-rod numbers. Now add in the platoon numbers for Swisher and Melky. That should be good for another 90 runs scored.
You have Church ahead of Nady because of his D, right? But somehow
Nady 82 25 99 .290
is not better than
Church 60 14 60 .281.
Seems like an across the board massacre. +22, +11, +39 covers all the contributions from Tatis, if they were all to come covering only church, and doesn’t factor in Swisher.
Schneider 33 8 47 .266 + Blastro 24 8 32 .269=
57 16 79 .267
Posada 54 14 67 .279 + Molina 21 2 16 .232=
75 16 83 .255
yankees + 18, even, +4
Seems like you are covered in catcher as well.
thats 1b, 2b, LF, RF, Catcher to the Yankees, SS pushes with Jeter RBI matching Reyes runs. DH beats pitcher. 3b and center to the Mets.
I don’t know if i agree with this guy, mostly b/ci don’t know his formula, but the Mets are clearly covered offensively by the Yankees, without A-rod even being factored in.
March 25, 2009 at 2:36 pm |
Yet, the fact remains that the Mets scored more runs last year, without the benefit of a DH, and without any production from left field until Murphy came up in August, right field after Church got hurt in June, and second base all season, and with you having A-Rod for nearly the entire season. I’ll gladly place a wager on the Mets outscoring the Yanks again this year. With a healthy Church and Castillo and a burgeoning young stud like Murphy joining Delgado and three of best players in all of baseball in Reyes, Beltran and DW, I’m pretty confident that they’re going to score a lot of runs this year. Four Mets go in the first two rounds of every fantasy draft. The Yanks are lucky to get one now.
I didn’t give you Swisher’s numbers because he projected full-time at bats for Nady and Damon as you can see from their numbers. He did not have full-time at-bats for Church and Murphy (400 or so each). And your “calculations” ignore the ninth spot in the Mets batting order. In any case, your lineup has one player driving in 100, no one scoring 100 and only Tex with over 30 and Nady with over 20. The Mets have Jose, C-Belt and DW with 100 runs, C-Belt, Delgado and DW with 100 ribbies, DW and Delgado with over 30 homers, and C-belt over 20. According to Schandler’s projections, four of the top five offensive players in New York are Mets (Jose, C-Belt, DW, Delgado & Tex), whereas the worst three getting substantial playing time are all Yanks (Molina, Gardner and Ransom).
And you have yet to name me a contending team with a clean-up hitter worse than Matsui. I honestly cannot imagine that there is one.
March 25, 2009 at 2:40 pm |
And what about defense. Mets are better at catcher, short, third, center and right. That’s 5 out of 8. Yanks are better at first and maybe second, depending on Castillo’s heath. Castillo use to be a stud, but he couldn’t move the last two years b/c of his knees and hip. Left is a wash. Murphy is learning the position and not much of an athlete, but Damon sucks and can’t throw at all.
March 25, 2009 at 3:20 pm |
first, there are no reports expecting a-rod to be out for most, or even half of the season.
Second, do you follow Ransom’s defense? Are you confident that DW is better than him? I haven’t seen much, but it seems to be a pretty confident pick on your part.
and the disparity between Mets pitching and Yankees is a lot greater than the difference btw Met and Yankee defense. When OP has his 1 out of 2 terrible start, and your #5 is getting slammed around the park, you will need defense a lot more than the Yankees behind all but Wang.
Jose is push with Jeter with the stick, so you can’t have him in the top 5 and not Jeter. Jeter has failed to score 100 runs twice in his career, and averages 120. Your guy has him in the 90s.
March 25, 2009 at 3:52 pm |
I’m pretty confident that the two-time defending gold glove champion is better than a career minor leaguer, and I know that he is better than A-Rod, particularly A-Rod with an injured hip.
Jose and jeter are not a push — not even close. Look at last year’s numbers, and the difference will only get greater as Jeter gets older while Jose enters his prime. To call Jeter and Jose a push is beyond absurd. I guess you didn’t learn your lesson for last year’s Yankee team. With steroid and greenie testing, this is a young man’s game now more than ever. Guys like Jeter, A-Rod, Damon, Posada are all going to fade away. Their best years are way behind them, and they are going to drop off a cliff pretty soon, just like old players use to before the steroid era. Jeter had his worst year last year. Do you think that was a fluke? Of course not. It was evidence of a player leaving his prime years and starting his decline towards retirement. He’ll be worse this year than last, and don’t be shocked if he starts getting injured like Matsui, A-Rod and Posoda all have. That’s what baseball use to be like, and that baseball is going to be like again.
Agreed about the disparity between the starting staffs, but the Mets’ bullpen is better because we have Putz pitching the 8th while you have Brian Bruney. Good luck with that.
March 25, 2009 at 3:59 pm |
As for your Jeter and Reyes being a “push with the stick” statement, Jeter has been averaging 70th in all fantasy drafts on CBSsportsline while Reyes has been going 4th.
March 25, 2009 at 4:15 pm |
You want an example of a SS who is a “push” with the stick with Jeter for 2009: Ryan Theriot. This is the nonsense that drives otherwise rational people like me crazy about Jeter. To pretend that he is still as good as Jose Reyes is crazy, and that’s what I’m talking about when I say that he and Ripken were the most overrated players I have ever seen. jeter is no longer one of the top shortstops in baseball (he barely makes the top 10), yet Yankee fans and people in the NY media want to pretend that he is still as good as Reyes is. It would be like me arguing that Piazza is a push with Mauer with the stick right now. It’s really that absurd.
March 25, 2009 at 6:53 pm |
How many gold gloves did Jeter win, and you subsequently mock. It is the definition of hypocracy to knock the GG of one guy as a fraud while touting the GG of another as evidence of his superiority.
As for Jeter v Reyes, I was going purely on the predictions you listed. Jeter is a plus 10 in RBI Reyes is a plus 14 in runs. Thats a push. If you want to talk overall offense, that is another conversation. Based on the predictions, which we were discussing, the numbers they represent are a push. I dont know what formula his predictions are derived from, and don’t necessarily agree with any of them, but if we posit them as accurate, Jeter and Reyes approximate to the same offensive production.
Jose Reyes steals a lot of bases, which is a fantasy category in most leagues. Jeter doesn’t. Proposing his fantasy selection position as evidence of his superiority is just silly. You don’t need anything but a user ID to play fantasy, and many people just end up auto drafting on pre rankings.
So in summary, Jeter is an equal offensive player to Jose Reyes, in the contect of the predictions you brought into the discussion. Thats not really a debateable point, the numbers are right there. One guys lead in runs is mitigated by the others lead in RBI.
March 25, 2009 at 10:13 pm |
Here are the projections from Baseball Prospectus:
Reyes 126 16 76 .309 .374 .478
Jeter 78 6 56 .288 .353 .383
And no one is predicting an OPS anywhere to equal, nor were their OPS’s, VORP’s, WARP’s and win-shares close to equal last year. Reyes was the far superior offensive player last year, and that gap should widen because he is improving while Jeter is declining. Here is what Baseball Prospectus had to say about Jeter:
“Slowed by age and nagging injuries, Jeter had his least productive season in a decade… Jeter’s power never manifested, his .107 ISO being by far the lowest mark of his career, and his speed is ebbing. He’s signed through 2010, a year short of when he’ll be near the 3,000 hit mark; the Yankees will have a tough decision to make, because famous-player milestones sell tickets and merchandise, but as veterans of the Astros’ Biggioquest 07 can tell you, subjugating team goals to the greater glory of a fading star isn’t conducive to winning. By 2010, Jeter’s glove won’t play in the infield and his bat won’t play anywhere else. His 3,000th hit will have zero benefit to the winning effort.”
As for DW’s gold gloves, he did not deserve it in 07, but his glove work was stellar last year.
March 26, 2009 at 9:42 am |
You seriously believe the Baseball Prospectus numbers? Jeter has never not hit double digit HR, but the power numbers are not my issue. 78 runs and 56 RBI. You have to be kidding me right? Take a look at his worst season numbers. I don’t know how, barring injury, anyone could think those projections would be accurate.
Like I said, we were talking offensive production in the context of the projections you introduced. I already conceded that a comparison of overall offensive production was a different discussion.
But I want you to remember something. You were SURE that Mike Mussina was done. You were positive Giambi was trash.
“If Moose pitches like last year (which he will)”
“The only players I think are awful are Giambi and Mussina. And I’ll stand by that statement all year long.”
You rationally backed off as the evidence piled up, but I am positive you could apply all the same things to Moose that you are now applying to Jeter. VORP this, win-share that, predictions from BP of 8-14 with a 4.78 ERA. The point is, you were wrong, and significantly so. Why are you convinced you are right about Jeter’s “inevitable” decline?
A healthy Jeter, protected by a switch-hitting stud, is alll of a sudden Ryan Theriot? I’m calling Jeter Watch.
March 26, 2009 at 10:48 am |
What about a Gardner Watch and a Maine Watch? I’ve called Gardner a “scrub”; you’ve opined that he and Melky Crapera are a “wash” with a young stud like Jacoby Ellsbury. You’ve called Maine a “bum”, I think he’s a solid young righty who’ll win 13-15 games with a 3.80 ERA.
I posted my predictions for Jeter the other day, and they were much more optimistic than his BP PECOTA’s. I think I projected .290 with 10-15 HR and 10-15 SB. But I’ll admit that Nate Silver knows more than me, and he is a hell of a lot more mathematically inclined. And, as I stated yesterday, you have to start expecting injuries from a 35 year old shortstop. Look at Matsui, Posada, A-Rod, Damon, etc.. Notice the trend? As guys get well into their 30’s, they can’t go 160 games and 650 plate appearances. Especially a 35 year-old shortstop. You are not being reasonable in failing to acknowledge that we are no longer living in 1999, and that without steroids (hopefully) and greenies, this is a young man’s game again. No matter how much you love the guy for his past contributions, he’s just not that good anymore. He can’t field, has no power, and his speed his dwindling. Glove, power and speed are gone. Health and batting average are the next to go. As you can see from my projections (as opposed to PECOTA’s), I am not expecting a huge drop-off this year, but I would not be shocked if Baseball Prospectus is right. And you do not want to see what they think of your crappy clean-up hitter.
Jeter’s decline is “inevitable” (and already occurring despite your refusal to see it) because he’s getting old. But if you think I’m a pessimist because I doubt Jeter’s discovery of some fountain of youth which will permit him to hit .300 until he’s 70, so be it. But before you start a Jeter Watch, you have to post your season projections. And will this watch should include all the “groundball basehit past a diving Derek Jeter” all YES subscribers will be witnesses at an increasing rate this year? That’s where his decline is most obvious and startling.
March 26, 2009 at 11:47 am |
Season projections are coming, but I can’t fire those off as quick as these comments.
I’m fine with a Gardner and Jeter watch, but i don’t watch enough Mets games to do a Maine watch justice. I could go strictly on numbers I guess.
But seriously, you back me into a corner by painting Jeter as finished, and if I defend as not being finished, you knock me for not acknowledging he is on the decline. Of course he is on his way down, but that doesn’t mean he sucks. A player can simultaneously not-suck, be on the decline overall, and still have a good bounce-back season.
March 26, 2009 at 12:28 pm |
Girardi is also “toying” with the idea of flip-flopping leadoff hitter Johnny Damon and No. 2 hitter Derek Jeter in the batting order. The manager plans to have Jeter hit first and Damon second on a regular basis during the remaining spring training games.
“We could flip it, yes,” Girardi said. “Johnny is a pull guy. Johnny’s the type of guy that’s good at getting guys over. We’re going to play with a little bit here unless there’s something that changes our mind.”
Damon batted second in several games during spring training when catcher Jorge Posada, coming back from right shoulder surgery last July 30, batted first in order to get extra at-bats.
“I’m OK with it,” Damon said. “We all know Derek’s on-base percentage. Hopefully I can continue to feel comfortable in that position. The good thing about it is Derek and I both want to win. I just think this possibly could be better for the team.”
March 29, 2009 at 12:38 pm |
No backing out after last might.
March 29, 2009 at 12:38 pm |
night, not might
March 29, 2009 at 7:17 pm |
I was looking at the box score before I realized what you meant,lol. Yup I’m singed to a long term deal now.