Even I can’t argue that this is insane: (from kottke.org)
The economics of the new Yankee Stadium
Ticket prices at the new Yankee Stadium are so high that if a New Yorker wants to watch a Mariners/Yankees game from the best seats, it would be a lot cheaper to fly to Seattle, stay in a nice hotel, eat fancy dinners, and see two games.
Option 1: Two tickets to Tuesday night, June 30, Mariners at Yanks, cost for just the tickets, $5,000.
Option 2: Two round-trip airline tickets to Seattle, Friday, Aug. 14, return Sunday the 16th, rental car for three days, two-night double occupancy stay in four-star hotel, two top tickets to both the Saturday and Sunday Yanks-Mariners games, two best-restaurant-in-town dinners for two. Total cost, $2,800. Plus-frequent flyer miles.
(thx, david)
May 12, 2009 at 4:47 pm |
Jeter is out of the lineup tonight with a strained oblique. Posada is out with a hamstring. Molina is out with a hamstring. Matsui can’t play the field because of his knees. A-Rod can’t play the field every game because of his hip and will DH against lefties. Delgado is out with a bad hip. This is what I’ve been talking about. It’s becoming a young man’s sport again, and teams which rely too much on guys in their mid-30’s and over are in trouble.
Interesting match-up tonight, and a big series for this early in the season.
By the way, the Mets’ lineup without Delgado in the clean-up spot looks rather pedestrian as well.
May 12, 2009 at 4:47 pm |
Jeter is out of the lineup tonight with a strained oblique. Posada is out with a hamstring. Molina is out with a hamstring. Matsui can’t play the field because of his knees. A-Rod can’t play the field every game because of his hip and will DH against lefties. Delgado is out with a bad hip. This is what I’ve been talking about. It’s becoming a young man’s sport again, and teams which rely too much on guys in their mid-30’s and over are in trouble.
Interesting match-up tonight, and a big series for this early in the season.
By the way, the Mets’ lineup without Delgado in the clean-up spot looks rather pedestrian as well.
May 13, 2009 at 10:02 am |
Still predicting 99-63? Or have you come to the realization that my 89-73 prediction was much more realistic, if not optimistic?
The Yanks will have to go 84-46 the rest of the way to win 99. Ain’t happening.
May 14, 2009 at 8:02 am |
I think the Yankees have as good a chance of going 84-46 as the Mets do of going 75-54 to get to your 93 prediction. I am fully confident the Yankees are 9 games better than the Mets over the rest of the season. If Johan isn’t a guaranteed W when he is pitching lights out baseball, who are you leaning on?
Your 10 game swing @ San Fran, @ LA and @ Boston is certainly daunting.
Then its home Was & Fla followed by away at Pitt and Washington- pretty easy stuff there.
Then its the real test-
3 Home for Phila
3 @ Yankees
3 @ Baltimore
3 Home Tampa
4 Home Stl
3 home Yankees
3 @ Mil
3 @ Phil
3 Home LA
Thats a rough 28 game stretch. I am convinced things will shake out toward normalcy soon. We will see, but if CC gives another solid outing tonight, a roll could be coming.
May 14, 2009 at 9:33 am |
Don’t see the Yankees going on a big roll with that bullpen, unless Wang can come back and be effective and the starting pitching can dominate. The lineup is massively overrated, and the nagging little injuries will keep mounting. It’s too a long season to rely so heavily on so many aging players. And no one knows how good A-Rod will be this year, although we do know that he is not moving too well. But you have a couple of easy series coming up at home, so now is the time to get it going. That was a big win last night. There would have been a lot of pressure to win tonight had you lost last night.
As for the Mets, they always seem to do well during the tough stretches of the schedule. I’m just worried long-term about Delgado’s health and the 4th spot in the rotation. Lineup not too powerful without the Big Fella in the 4-hole. Pelfrey and Maine have seemingly stabilized the middle of the rotation behind Johan, but we have two mediocre 5’s (Livan and Redding) behind them. Hard to maintain momentum when you’re throwing two fives out there every five days.
The W’s will come for Johan. It’s inevitable. He’s rattle off 5 or 6 wins in a row, and everybody will forget about his early season misfortunes.
I’m sticking to my guns for now — 89 wins for the Yanks, third place, no playoffs. 93 wins for the Metsies, divisional champs.
May 15, 2009 at 10:41 am |
Nice game from Corpulent Charles (CC) last night. And that “scrub” pitching for the Mets put up his 4th straight quality start.
Still in the mood for comparing the Craptain’s stats with DWright’s?
Runs Hr RBI SB BA OBA SLG
DW — 24 3 20 9 .331 .417 .508
Jeter — 19 4 14 7 .270 .342 .401
May 15, 2009 at 1:06 pm |
I just hope that scrub pitches against our overrated lineup. Bombs away.
May 15, 2009 at 1:07 pm |
Way to dominate Pittsburgh and San Fran. What an all-star.
May 15, 2009 at 1:41 pm |
And Atlanta and Florida. It probably will be bombs away for such an extreme flyball pitcher at Yankee McStadium where popflies masquerade as homeruns. But he’ll shut their asses down with the future MVP patrolling center in a real baseball park.
No love for DW? Come on. Give credit where credit is due. And he is now hitting .333 with RISP despite all the crap he has taken from the NY media and the spoiled and impatient NY fans.
May 15, 2009 at 2:32 pm |
“shut their asses down”- thats going in the quote book.
Delgado has a very A-rod like injury in his hip. (roids anyone?)
Putz has a bum elbow.
Trouble brewing.
Wright has been caught stealing 6 times (still 0 for Jeter), has 5 errors (2 for Jeter), has a .200 2 out RISP average (.500 for Jeter), and 38 Ks (20 for Jeter).
May 15, 2009 at 3:34 pm |
More runs, more ribbies, higher average, higher slugging and higher OBP. Foolish to compare Jeter with DWright. Jeter was not as good as DWright is even when Jeter was good.
As for those caught stealings, there have been a few swing and misses on hit and run plays. But since you are an AL fan, I doubt you even know what a hit and run is.
.
What does Delgado’s injury have to do with steroids? People suspected steroids at first with A-Rod due to the cyst in a region where steroids can be injected and cysts can be injection induced. See, e.g., Roger Clemens’ Boil On Ass. Delgado has a classic degenerative problem which, unfortunately, is career threatening. Real shame because he was one more big year from clinching HOF.
As for 2 out and RISP, talk about an absurdly small sample size. Entirely irrelevant stat at this point of the season. I would even argue it is irrelevant for an entire season. These stats are kind of bullshit because when a career is over a 300 hitter generally hits 300 in the clutch over the course of his entire career whereas a 250 hitter generally ends up around 250. Jeter’s career stats with RISP correspond with his career stats overall. To attack a player based on results over a few dozen at bats is unfair and ignorant. But that’s what the NY media and the brainiacs who call into the FAN do.
May 15, 2009 at 4:59 pm |
so what you are saying is that (and I would appreciate you addressing these items rather than changing the subject)
a)I can’t look at a small sample size in my category, because (surprisingly)that hurts your argument, but you can look at a small sample size when you are talking overall numbers, because this week it helps your argument. Even though last week the numbers didn’t look like that, and your approach was wait and see.
b)I can’t look at career numbers, where Derek Jeter is a career .311 BA with RISP and Wright is a career .302 BA with RISP, where Derek Jeter is .318 2out RISP and Wright is .257, because you dont care what he did years ago.
c) Wright is better than Jeter when Jeter was good, even though if we look at both guys at age 25, which Wright was last year (when he was better than A-Rod, right) the numbers clearly don’t back you up.
DW age 25-115 runs, 189 hits, 33 HR, 124 RBI, .924 OPS 16 Error, .962 F%
DJ age 25- 134 runs, 219 hits, 24 HR, 102 RBI, .989 OPS 14 errors, .978 F%
then surprisingly what you claim to be my argument of runs scored and driven in leaves a difference of 3 runs, while Jeter FAR outpaces Wright in hits, OPS and fielding. And Jeter hit like an animal on the way to the World Series, with a team who you tried to convince me at the time was far inferior to the Mets (who lost to the same team we easily swept in the WS).
What am I missing here?
May 15, 2009 at 6:54 pm |
First, and for the record, it was you who started this Jeter is having a better year than Dwright stuff. I said too small a sample size. The fact that a mere one week later DWright is having a better year proves that my wait and see attitude was (and remains) correct. But you are insane if you think that your past his prime shortstop will have better stats at year end.
The year for comparison you took was the best year of Jeter’s career, and the ONLY year he ever drove in 100. DW already has more seasons with 30 homers and more seasons with 100 rbi, but you can believe whatever you want to believe. Compare DW’s 07 to Jeter’s 08, or DW’s 06 to Jeter’s 07 for the bigger picture.
As for defense, errors and fielding percentage are irrelevant when comparing shortstops and third basemen. That’s just plain silly and you know better. Is Delgado a superior defender to Brooks Robinson and Ozzie Smith because he has a higher career fielding percentage?
May 16, 2009 at 12:40 am |
What a freaking night. You came from behind on Nathan. We took out Lincecum. And DWright stays red-hot.
As baseball fans, we’re lucky to be in New York.
May 17, 2009 at 1:31 pm |
After I woke up from my 4 inning jameson induced nap, I enjoyed the hell out of yesterdays game, including the Arod homer, which I called
May 18, 2009 at 9:32 am |
Starting pitching is coming around. But you better start scoring runs without homers. And the Mets better start hitting some homeruns.
May 18, 2009 at 9:48 am |
by the way, why is F% for two different positions not ok to compare, but batting at two even more disparate positions in the lineup just fine to look at?
If we follow your logic, a direct comparison between the two doesn’t work at all. Why not compare Jeter as a 1-2 hitter and SS over the course of his career, and Wright to all the 3B and 3-5 hitters over the course of his.
May 18, 2009 at 10:40 am |
Name the two players in baseball history to have 40 or more doubles and 25 or more homeruns four seasons in a row.
Third base is a low fielding percentage position. No automatic forceouts at second to raise the percentage. Just a lot of hard hit grounders and long throws across the diamond.
Of course you need to take into account batting order (and teammates as well), but Jeter also hit third a lot in 99, correct? And didn’t he have about 1,000 plate appearances as well every year because the offense was so good back then?
In any case, that’s why Jeter had more runs and one of the reasons why DWright had more ribbies. But no matter where they hit, DWright is more of a run-producer because he has a lot more power.
The answer to the question: Albert Pujols and David Wright. Pretty freaking impressive you have to admit. DWright has four full years in the majors, and he is only one of two players in history to accomplish that feat. I just hope he can still 25 in Citifield. That place has already robbed him of at least 3 homers this year. His power is to right-center, where it’s 415 feet away. He has has some outs to right and rightcenter that would have been tape measure shots in the Bronx.
May 18, 2009 at 11:24 am |
What a random statistic. Lets take someone like A-Rod. He’s hit 40 doubles in a season twice (96 and 97). he has hit 35 and driven in 100 in 11 straight years. Probably a little better than hitting doubles.
Jeter hit 3rd in 99 during 11 games, so no, not alot.
what player has the most hits in all of baseball since Derek Jeter entered the league? Why of course thats DJ. At 35, he’s 5th on the active list, and could end the season as high as second.
May 18, 2009 at 11:44 am |
How is that so random? It shows great consistent power production. I thought it was incredible that only two players have done that in the history of the game. I guess it’s just a coincidence that the only other player is one of the best hitters of all time (though probably a cheating POS like A-Rod). Aren’t doubles “a little better” than singles”?
And I am shocked that A-Rod has only hit 40 doubles twice in his career. With his power, I would have guessed that he averaged 40 per year.
What year did Jeter hit third a lot? I remember him hitting a third quite a bit in the late 90’s. Have I “misremembered”?
May 18, 2009 at 11:53 am |
DWright has had no fewer than 70 extra basehits each of his full four seasons in the majors. Jeter has had 70 once his entire career (1999). Why can’t you just tip your cap to the guy instead of calling meaningful stats such as extra basehits “random.”
May 18, 2009 at 12:42 pm |
Jeter only has 500 career AB in the 3 hole. Fairly even distribution, with the most coming in 2003 (142 AB).
Wright averaged 105 runs scored and 112 RBI for the 4 year run.
The “cheating POS” A rod, who hasn’t dont the 40 and 25, averaged 121 runs scored and 128 RBI.
Pujols averaged 111 runs and 118 RBI.
Jeter averaged 108 runs and 78 RBI.
So Wright’s doubles aren’t getting him in more than others who haven’t hit as many (admittedly a function of team) and he is also not clearing people off the bases with those doubles more than anyone in this comparison but Jeter (but again, teammates need to be on base to be knocked in).
Overall, its merely a statistical quirk that doesn’t really speak to him being elite. Explain to me why doubles are more valuable if they don’t result in you scoring or driving in more? Is it one of those “I did my part, its not my fault if my team didn’t come through” things?
May 18, 2009 at 1:24 pm |
Here we go again with that “all that matters is runs and ribbies” nonsense. Four straight seasons of 70 or more extra basehits is not a statistical “quirk”: It is a sign of excellence. Line drive hitters with power hit doubles, and the hitting of doubles is anything but irrelevant and entirely dependent upon the player’s own ability (unlike runs and ribbies).
DWright is not an elite player? Come on. Just two months ago, you were telling me that Wang was an elite player. So a 29 year-old Yankee with a 4.09 career ERA and a whopping 54 career wins is elite, but a 26 year-old Met with a .311 career average and 133 career homers is not?
Back to your love affair with runs and ribbies, don’t forget that to DWright’s and Jeter’s credit when comparing them to Pujols and especially A-Rod, a homer is counted twice as both a run and rbi. If a guy drives in a run with a double, and then scores on a single. He gets one run and one rbi for two runs manufactured. If a guy hits a solo homer, he gets one run and one rbi for one run manufactured.
May 18, 2009 at 1:27 pm |
Career OPS — DWright .924
Jeter .843
DWright is as elite as they come.
May 18, 2009 at 2:33 pm |
Zimmerman has better numbers across the board. So does Longoria. Michael Young is right there. Wright is in a lump of players who are among the best at third base to this point in the season, and clearly not the best of the group. Thats not as elite as they come. Wright has as many HR as A-rod and 20 more RBI in 140 more AB. Blah-blah-blah Yankee McStadium, stats are stats.
40 doubles and 25 HR? That is an arbitrary cutoff point. A-Rod is a far superior offensive player, but does not make the 40 2B cutoff. Aramis Ramirez is as good as Wright and has been around at that level for longer. However he only had 38 2B in 2006. He also had 12 more HR than Wright. Your little arbitrary stat leaves him out of the discussion, but its clearly just a statistical quirk.
No question Wright is a great ballplayer, but you’re trying to make him out to be something he’s not.
May 18, 2009 at 2:51 pm |
Career OPS — DWright .924
M. Young .793
ARam .845
Zimmerman .821
A-Rod .967
So, Wright is closer in career OPS to A-Rod than to any of the other players you lump him with.
May 18, 2009 at 2:59 pm |
162 game average as per baseball reference:
R HR RBI SB AVE OPS
ARam — 84 30 108 2 .285 .844
DW — 107 29 113 22 .311 .924
Please, DW is a much better player than ARam, I am a fan of ARam.
DW might not be ARod, but he is closer to Arod than he is to any other third-bagger in the game. Why do you think he is a top five fantasy pick? His defense? His boyish good looks?
May 18, 2009 at 3:14 pm |
By the way, this upcoming weekend will be interesting. I’ll be a Yankee fan for three days, and you’ll be rooting for the orange and blue.
May 18, 2009 at 3:21 pm |
“but he is closer to Arod than he is to any other third-bagger in the game”
Just be be clear:
R HR RBI SB AVE OPS
A-rod 127 44 127 22 .305 .967
Chipper 110 33 110 11 .310, .955
DW 107 29 113 22 .311 .924
Sorry, not buying it. A-Rod is on another level. DW compares with Chipper, and will be lucky to end his career as good a player. he needs 10 more awesome years to reach Chipper’s level. Sorry, but he aint never gonna be A-Rod.
Plus, Longoria will soon replace him as the best young 3B in the game, if he hasn’t already.
May 18, 2009 at 4:25 pm |
Forgot about Chipper, and you hadn’t mentioned him. Besides, Chipper is a first ballot HOF’er, and his credentials look more impressive each time a POS like Arod or Manny is exposed. I’d love a career from DW which matches Chipper’s career (just healthier, please). Lets give Langoria another year or two in the league before we add him to the debate. He has just completed one full season now.
But A-Rod’s steroid induced .967 OPS is not on another level from Chipper’s clean .955, let alone DWright’s .924. How is .967 so much more impressive than .955. That’s like saying a .320 hitter is on another level from a .318 hitter. The more you argue your point, the less impressed I am with A-Rod. I would have guessed that he hit more extra basehits than he does, and that his OPS was much higher than Chipper’s. Jose Reyes had more extra basehits last year than A-Rod. But that’s probably just a statistical “quirk.”
As for the 40/25 streak which started this debate, I admit that 40/30 would be much more impressive, but 40/25 shouldn’t be dismissed as a “quirk.”
May 18, 2009 at 5:00 pm |
Here is their three year average for the past three seasons (as opposed to 162 game average, which is kind of deceptive):
DW — 108 30 116 23 .313 .937
ARod — 120 41 127 19 .303 .981
Chipper — 92 26 88 5 .341 1.031
Yes, Arod has the best line across the board, but he is not in a league of his own (and he’s a cheater to boot). DW steals more bases and has a higher BA. Chipper has a higher BA and OPS. DW’s runs plus ribbies minus homers is 194. ARod’s runs plus ribbies minus homers is 203. You are Mr. Runs and rbi. Your boy only produces on average the past three years a mere 9 more runs and rbi than DW, yet he is on another level? It’s time to give it up for DWright.
May 18, 2009 at 5:54 pm |
Look at the real numbers, in both mine and yours-
In the last 3 years in your math, (two of which are down years for A-Rod) he averages 12 more runs, 11 more bombs, 11 more RBI and a higher OPS. In my 162 game average its 20, 15 and 14.
Steals are irrelevant when you are rounding the bases at a nice trot.
In the last 4 years, A-Rod was an MVP twice. That is another level, another class. He has led the AL in major categories like:
Times on base (2005 and 2007)
Offensive Win % (1st 2005, 2nd 2007&2008)
HR (2005 & 2007)
RBI (2007)
Total Bases (2007)
Runs Scored (2005 2007)
OPS (2005 2007)
Slugging (2005 2007 2008)
Wright led in:
Times on base 2007
Sac flies 2008
Caught Stealing 2009
You are right man, its time to give it up. David Wright is not on A Rod’s level. You can make cheating claims which are fair, but based on numbers, your boy has not yet been the dominant force Alex has. Look at it again, he has not just been better than DW, he has been better than everyone in major areas.
David Wright is awesome, but he’s not Alex Rodriguez and has long way to go to be Chipper. He’s a better Eric Chavez right now.
May 18, 2009 at 8:31 pm |
At least I got a concession of “awesome” from you, but he’s much better than Chavez. DWright has had a higher VORP and WARP than A-Rod 2 out of the last 3 seasons.
VORP WARP
DW 2006 55.3 5.0
2007 81.9 8.7
2008 65.8 7.1
ARod 2006 53.3 4.8
2007 91.5 10.3
2008 62.4 6.3
Of course he is not the power hitter that ARod is, and he never will be. Nor will he ever put up ARod’s prolific numbers. But there is much more to the game of baseball than hitting homeruns.
And you are repeating the mistake of counting a homerun as both a run and an rbi. A solo homerun produces one run for a team, not two. if you are going to focus so heavily on runs, rbi and hr’s, at least substract homers from the runs and rbi totals.
May 18, 2009 at 9:41 pm |
What are you talking about? Is this some weird mumbo-jumbo? A home run credits the batter with a run scored plus an RBI for himself and each batter who crosses the plate. How are you trying to spin this? I’m including homers because they always have value, as opposed to doubles.
May 19, 2009 at 9:58 am |
“Wierd mumbo-jumbo”? My point was that if you are gonna give Arod credit for more runs and ribbies because the only thing that matters in your eyes is helping your team score runs, you need to subtract homers from ribbies plus runs because homers are counted as both a run and an rbi, although they only help the team score one run. To adapt your logic of what helps a team more:
Player one doubles with a runner on first for an rbi, and then scores on a single. Player one helped team score two runs, and gets one run and one rbi for doing so.
Player two hits a solo homer. Player two helped his team score one runs, yet he is awarded both an rbi and a run.
Who helped the team score more runs? Player one or player two? Player one, although he gets no more credit than player two.
May 19, 2009 at 11:52 am |
First, you really need to get off of the tangent about runs and ribbies, which I may have mentioned 2 or 3 times in the course of 6 years of writing. Its not like I harp on it constantly everytime I write. I brought it up in the context of devaluing silly things like steals and doubles and putting extra emphasis on the truest difference makers, runs scored and driven in.
Player 1 hits a home run. He scores and drives in at least one run. Guaranteed.
Player 2 hits a double, and is dependent on a baserunner in front of him, or someone behind him driving him in.
I understand what you mean about total runs created not equalling Runs + RBI, because several may be the same run. Thats not a hard concept. It is however a ploy to frame your offensive player in the same light as mine, when mine is clearly superior. Clever, but shenanigans.
May 19, 2009 at 12:43 pm |
The guy with the lower VORP and WARP two out of the last three years is “clearly superior”? I just think you overrate homers, and massively overrate runs and rbi.
Take last night for example. DW was 2 for 3, with two doubles, two walks and one run score. ARod went 1 for 3, with a solo homer, a walk, one run and one rbi. Who had the better game? They both had the same slugging percentage and they both were responsible for one run, but I’ll take the guy with the .800 OBP over the guy with the .500 OBP.
It’s not DW’s fault that no one drove him in four of the five times he was base. But he should be credited for being on base four out of five times, and getting to second on his own on two of those four occasions.
What’s so “silly” about a stolen base or a double? We’ve been over this before, and my position, quite simply is that every stat should be looked at, instead of just the traditional stats of runs, rbi, hr and ba. These traditional measures should not be ignored, but they fall far short of giving you a complete picture of a ballplayer’s ability. Add in stolen bases, OBP and slugging percentage, and you start to get a clearer picture.
Nice baserunning from Church last night. As the NY Times online stated today: “The New York Mets: Making the Easy Difficult Since 1962.”
May 19, 2009 at 1:02 pm |
we’ve also been over the fact that while Wright deserves no blame for not being driven in, he also doesn’t get more credit than he deserves. Wright did not knock in any runs, A-rod did. Wright put himself in scoring position, Alex scored himself.
Its just like Santana last year. him not winning was often not his fault. his bullpen blew leads. however, he could have ensured a win by pitching a CG. He pitched well enough to win, but didn’t. Wright is not to be blamed for getting stranded at second, but he could have ensured a run by hitting a homer. A double doesn’t help as much as a homer. Dont over blame sure, but don’t over credit.
May 19, 2009 at 2:33 pm |
You think 1 for 3 with a walk and and a solo homer is a better offensive performance than 2 for 3, with two doubles and two walks? I vehemently disagree with that assessment.
Let’s not get back to Santana because you are never going to change my mind, and I am never going to change your mind. I have been arguing that wins are virtually meaningless since the late 70’s, and I thought that debate was pretty much over until last year. By the way, Steve Phillips agreed with you last week on baseball tonight. But I wouldn’t be too proud of that endorsement.
May 19, 2009 at 3:21 pm |
I didnt say that the line that Rodriguez had was a better offensive performance than the Wright line.
But lets look at them
Situationally-
In the second Wright hit a double and came around to score to cut the deficit to 2-1- important play
He flied out in the 4th with his team still trailing, and Sheff on base
He hit a ground rule double in the 6th, and was stranded at second.
He drew walks with the game on the line in the 8th and the 10th, both with 2 outs, both times bringing up Tatis. Men were on both times
A-Rod hit the second half of back-to-back HR, and put his team up 2 runs
He then lined out, in the next inning with his team up 6-2
He struck struck out in the 5th with his team up 6-3
Then he walked following a Tex HR with his team up 7-4.
So who had a better night? Both scored a run, and A-Rod drove one in (albeit the same run he scored). But wouldn’t the Mets have liked a HR from Wright as opposed to a double? Sure they would have. not sure how your vehemenece is warranted. This isnt a vaccuum, its a real game that the Yankees won and the Mets lost. Not Wright’s fault, but a loss is a loss.
Why is it unreasonable to note that you can do more for your team with a 3 run complete game victory than a 7 inning shut out which leaves the game in the hands of a shaky pen?
May 19, 2009 at 3:39 pm |
Don’t disagree about the importance of complete games and innings pitched, but last year you were arguing that Mussina was having a better year than Santana because of his higher win total notwithstanding that it was Santana who was pitching more innings and it was Santana who had more complete games.
However, I will take a 7 inning shutout over 9 innings and 3 runs. Those 3 runs over the final two innings equals an ERA of 13.50. No thank you. Again, my point is that wins do not tell you the complete story of a pitcher’s performance. You have to look at ERA, innings, strikeouts, WHIP, BAPIP, etc. to get an idea of what kind of year a pitcher is really having. Wins are more often than not the result of luck.
May 19, 2009 at 4:57 pm |
He did have a better year, even if he didn’t pitch better. You never got me on that point.
And 3 runs over 9 is a 3.00 era. I you are changing the question to “would you rather leave the game with a shut after 7, or stay in, give up 3, and win?” every manager and pitcher in baseball picks the latter.
May 20, 2009 at 10:58 am |
Yes. I’ll take the guy with the 0.00 era over the guy with the 3.00 era. My 13.50 alluded to the ERA over innings 8 and 9 which the 7 inning 0 run guy would have to post to match the performance of the 9 inning 3 run guy.
So, the pitcher who pitched “better” didn’t have the better year? How is that possible? Of course Santana had the better year, and it wasn’t even close. Santana had a 2.53 ERA over 234 innings, with a 1.14 WHIP and 206 K’s. Moose had a 3.37 ERA over 200 innings, with a 1.22 WHIP, and 150 k’s. Not even close. Santana pitched an inning more per start, and had an ERA which was nearly a full run lower.
May 20, 2009 at 11:14 am |
Johan’s record? 16-7 The Mets record when Johan started? 22-12
Moose’s record 20-9? the Yankees record when he started? 23-11
Johan had better numbers, The Yankees got more wins. Better year for Moose.
How bout Murph, Church, Pagan, Pelf and the Mets defense overall? Lots of sound fundamental baseball going on over there. Missing bases, blocking your outfielder, dropping balls, balking up a storm, 5 errors in a game. 28th in fielding % for the Mets and 3rd most errors in all of baseball.
At least the scrub had a good game at the plate.
May 20, 2009 at 12:12 pm |
That is complete nonsense. Moose did not have a better year. He had a better closer pitching behind him. If Mariano was closing for the Mets and Luis Ayala for the Yanks, then Santana would have had the better year?
The Mets are a freaking mess right now. They have been playing guys out of position all over the place, and it really needs to stop. But at least Jose was back last night. Cora (who is a great bench player) can’t really play short anymore, and Ramon Martinez was pathetic the other night (he made 2 of the 5 errors). Pagan sucks. I can’t stand the guy. He is one of those guys who looks like a good fielder, but isn’t.
Pelf will be fine. Maine was actually pitching really well last night — throwing a consistent 94-95, and his breaking stuff was good. Then he hung a slider to Casey Blake and paid for it. The pitching, which had been my main concern entering the season, is doing ok, and I am optimistic about an eventual rotation of Johan, Pelf, Maine, Perez and Redding. Especially with Putz looking OK now, and Parnell throwing gas in the 7th.
My concern right now is getting a good bat and glove for first to stabilize the lineup and defense. Nick Johnson would be perfect for this team and this ballpark. I like the idea of trading mid-level prospects for him, and sending Murph down to AAA to learn either leftfield or 1st base. Not fair to the kid to make him learn a new position (or two) at the major league level. And I suspect that Fernando Martinez will be up in a month or two. He hit 2 homers yesterday off of Clay Buchholz, who has been lights out this year. Fernando is only 20, and he leads the International League in extra basehits. I don’t know if you know much about Fernando, but there are a lot of scouts out there who think he’s a future MVP-caliber player because of his bat speed. He is not listed that high on some prospect lists only because Omar has been very aggressive in promoting him (AA ball at the age of 18), and he has had some injuries. Two years ago he got hit by a pitch and broke his hand, last year he pulled a hammy. So, he doesn’t have gaudy minor league stats, but the old school scouts drool over his bat speed.
May 20, 2009 at 12:38 pm |
another one for the quote book-
“and I am optimistic about an eventual rotation of Johan, Pelf, Maine, Perez and Redding.” haha, yeah right
that has to be the crappiest rotation from a “title contender” I have heard in a long time. You have one of the top pitchers in the entire game and then two ? with ERA over 4.50 and WHIP over 1.425, a headcase who got sent to the minors (the DL was BS) and Tim Redding with his 34-51 career record and 5 ERA. That inspires confidence?
May 20, 2009 at 1:18 pm |
And you were more optimistic last year about a rotation that included Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes. Need I remind you that they combined for zero major league wins last year.
Santana a stud. Maine and Pelf are solid. Perez will be back and he is always good for one good stretch. Redding was good in 07 and not bad in 08, but he pitched hurt down the stretch and had a bad second half as a result.
Where are you getting team records with Santana and Moose on the mound? I would like to see Redding’s for 2008.
May 20, 2009 at 2:05 pm |
20-13 in Redding starts. He didnt record a decision between May 19th and July 11th, and his team won 7 of the 8 starts. Never went past 6 IP.
After July 11th he was 4-8 in decisions, 5-9 in starts.
Maine is getting 5.66 runs per game. He walks as many guys as he strikes out in all his games, (he even walked 6 in his 7 K game vs Atl). He sucks.
Mike Pelfry is getting 5.88 runs per game. He is 4-1, which is really good, and he needs all 5 of those runs with his sweet ERA.
And you are really citing my poor speculation from as a defense of your ludicrous confidence in an ace and some scrubs?
May 20, 2009 at 2:32 pm |
Maine and Pelfrey are both pitching well. They just got off to bad starts. It’s a long season, and neither of those guys are “scrubs.” Have you seen Maine pitch? He has excellent stuff. Pelf is a younger Wang with better velocity. These are good young pitchers you are dismissing.
As for Redding, he must be great because he was almost as good last year (20-13) as Moose by your definition of good, and Moose is a HOF’er in your eyes. At least we have two aces (Redding and Santana) to go with our scrubs and headcases.
And yes, I am citing your speculation because last year you predicted a world series victory for a team whose starting staff included two complete unknowns who had proven nothing, and one of those unknowns (Kennedy) had zero talent. Kennedy’s fastball couldn’t break a plane of glass. At least my “scrubs” throw in the mid-90’s. Much less realistic for you to believe last year that the Yankees would win a world series with Kennedy (a junk-balling scrub) and Hughes (good, but overrated and injury prone prospect) than it is for me to believe that the Mets can compete with Pelf and Maine, both of whom have actually proven that they are capable of having good major league seasons.
May 20, 2009 at 2:44 pm |
Yes, I could have predicted the spate of other injuries which cropped up.
Ian Kennedy has zero talent? 24 year old Ian Kennedy? He has an anuerism in his arm right now, but before that was tearing up SWB.
W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO
1 0 1.59 4 4 22.2 18 5 4 0 7 25
He had a rough 2008 (at 23) but in 2007 he had 3 strong starts. He went 7 innings twice, and had a 1.89 ERA with 15 K’s and only 13 hits in 19 innings. That is zero talent?
May 20, 2009 at 3:43 pm |
And September call-up stats are so meaningful.
Ian (86 mph fastball) Kennedy has nowhere near the talent as John Maine. Hell, Maine throws harder than Hughes, but Hughes has better breaking stuff.
Forget about the injuries. My point was that you are mocking me for expecting the Mets to contend with a rotation which includes Maine and Pelf only one year after you had expected the Yanks to dominate with a rotation which included Kennedy and Hughes.
May 20, 2009 at 8:37 pm |
How about Moose being washed up? Giambi being finished? Melky not being able to hit ML pitching? The mets winning their division in 08 or 07? You are karnack all of the sudden (family guy)
May 21, 2009 at 11:31 am |
It looks like Jose is done for a while. Lineup very AAA like without Jose and Delgado. Beltran and Wright are gonna get a lot of bases on balls. Trade for them in your OBP instead of BA league.
May 21, 2009 at 12:40 pm |
honestly, that sucks. I enjoy the back and forth, but its less fun when teams don’t have their horses. If Mets persevere, thats a huge testament to them, but if they falter I can’t knock them too hard.
May 21, 2009 at 1:44 pm |
I’m hoping for a Mark DeRosa trade. Shouldn’t cost them much. He can play some SS while Reyes is out, then take the Alex Cora back-up infielder role when Reyes comes back.
What hurts is that its not just the horses, but the back-ups as well (Cora). Hard to go third-string at shortstop.
May 21, 2009 at 1:48 pm |
To be fair, we are still doing that at catcher, and as you noted Ransom was a 3rd stringer from the get-go.
Why wouldn’t Omar dangle Pelf and Fernando for Peavy, then make a deal for Nick Johnson with some other players? Do you like him as a GM?
May 21, 2009 at 3:17 pm |
Peavy won’t go to NY — no-trade clause. And Omar won’t trade F-Mart. He’s Omar’s signature signing.
Our starting catcher has been out all year. Don’t miss his bat, but do miss his glove.
May 21, 2009 at 3:57 pm |
Do you miss Schneider more than the Yankees miss Posada?
May 21, 2009 at 4:16 pm |
No. Just pointing out that its not just Reyes, Cora and Delgado who are out. But at least Murphy looked comfortable at first last night. If they let him play every day, he’ll hit .300. But he’s no Delgado, that’s for sure.
If Reyes can over this leg problem in short order, they’ll be fine. But if Reyes is out for any extended period of time, they are toast. He brings so much to the table both offensively and defensively, at a crucial position no less. Everybody talks about his offense, but his sure hands, range and cannon arm were conspicuous on their absence this past week. Cora can make the routine play, but nothing more. This Ramon Martinez guy is a journey man scrub who can’t field the position at all.
May 22, 2009 at 1:48 pm |
So what do you think of Omar as a GM? As a Met fan, are you happy with his track record?
May 22, 2009 at 10:07 pm |
I am undecided. He’s an excellent scout and talent evaluator, but I question his ability to perform all aspects of the job. He’s no Theo or Beane, that’s for sure.
May 24, 2009 at 8:11 am |
That scrub Pelfrey dominated the mighty Red Sox last night. At least one new york team can beat those massholes.
May 24, 2009 at 8:26 am |
thank god you have a back up catcher swinging, nice whiff by the second best 3B in baseball. Good hitters hit bombs off closers.
May 24, 2009 at 4:19 pm |
What about that play down the line in the bottom of the ninth? A-Rod just watches that ball go by.
May 25, 2009 at 7:29 pm |
5-5 for the big guy, and a real young stud dealing
May 26, 2009 at 10:15 am |
Our young stud looked pretty good against the BlowSox on Saturday.
Hughes two best games as a major leaguer are both against Texas. 2007 near no-hitter, and yesterday. I didn’t see any of yesterday’s game though.
May 26, 2009 at 10:20 am |
By the way, I never denied Hughes’ talent. He was clearly overrated and over-hyped as a prospect because the Yankees tried to sell him as a Dwight Gooden type prospect in 07 and 08 who throws 96-97. He was never even close to being that type of talent, but he is a legitimate top-flight prospect just the same.
Ian Kennedy, on the other hand, was nothing more than the product of the Yankee hype machine. Every mlb franchise (and a few high schools) has a dozen arms like his lingering in the minors. His upside was and remains a number 4 or 5 starter.
May 26, 2009 at 11:27 am |
Hughes is 22 and has shown that he can deal in the big leagues. He had 9 k’s in 5 innings his last time out, and had a studly showing against first-place Texas yesterday. His 1 inning blowup against the Orioles is what is really screwing up his ERA.
Pelf was drafted the year after hughes (?) but is 3 years older. Who you figure will be the better pitcher, both at the end of the season, and through the same ages?
May 26, 2009 at 12:03 pm |
Hard to say. I like both of them, and I would say that they have comparable ceilings. Pelf is a horse with a great fastball/sinker who has already proven that he can pitch 200 innings. Hughes has far superior secondary offerings (curve, change), but his fastball is not as lively and he has yet to prove that he can go 200 innings.
For this year, you take Pelf and its not even close. For the future, flip a coin.
P.S.: Pelf was drafted a year later because he went to college (Wichita State).
May 26, 2009 at 5:20 pm |
Now with Church, Reyes, and Delgado on the DL, Beltran probably belonging there, will you be as hard on your Mets upcoming struggles as you were on the Yankees last year?
May 26, 2009 at 5:22 pm |
Reyes and Church have joined Delgado, Cora and Schneider on the DL. Beltran out until the weekend. But F-Mart is making his debut tonight. Would John Sterling call “An F-Bomb, for F-Mart”?
May 26, 2009 at 5:30 pm |
Please stop whining about last year. Yankees had fewer injuries than the Mets last year. And that is a statistical fact, and it wasn’t even that close. Mets had more days on the disabled list for 40 man roster than Yanks. And if I remember correctly, the Yanks were not even in the top ten. And a 220 million roster should be able to withstand a couple of injuries.
As for injuries, Cora is the one that really hurts. Its hard to lose two shortstops at the same time. Like the Yanks with the catcher situation, but the Yanks have been real lucky with Cervelli. Guy hitting .180 in AA, comes up and hits .300. Mets’ dilemma is the only decent shortstops in the minors are real young (good glove, no hit types like Cervelli) and not on the 40 man roster yet. They don’t want to start their option years running and lose the right not to protect them in the Rule V draft on the 40 man roster.
May 26, 2009 at 6:07 pm |
Who is whining big guy?
You had all your starters except Pedro, and the only players who really mattered who missed time were Alou Church and Wagner.
We lost A-Rod the team’s best hitter,and Hughes, Posada, and Wang for long stretches.
Sympathy over, good luck with the back-up allstars and the zero prospects you have to trade. Haha
May 26, 2009 at 10:05 pm |
What about Perez and Maine? And Castillo and Castro? Those were players who mattered. A-Rod missed two and one-half weeks. Hughes had a 2009 Wang-like ERA.
Fortunately for the Mets, they are in the soft part of their schedule. If they can hang in until they get Reyes and C-Belt back, they will be fine. Their “scrubby” pitchers are doing quite well these days. Third best ERA in the NL. Yanks’ revamped staff is 12th in the AL.
Question: If Wang can be servicable as a fifth starter, do you move Hughes to the pen with the hope that he can assume the set-up role?
May 27, 2009 at 7:50 am |
Perez and Maine made 35 and 25 starts respectively. Only Moose and Pettite made that many for the Yankees. Rasner and Ponson featured prominently in the rotation, and those are guys who barely make the Mets rotation this year. Maine was somewhat limited, but to argue that 34 starts from Perez equals missing time is just silly.
Your best position players are unquestionably Reyes, Wright, Delgado, and Beltran and none played fewer than 159 games. Only Cano, on the entire Yankee team played 159 games.
The Mets blew it with the team they had. I’d be interested to see (not that we ever could) how they would fare with the same number of games the Yankees got at the same positions:
110 for Schneider vs 51 from Posada?
159 from Delgado vs 145 from Giambi?
159 from Reyes vs 150 from Jeter?
160 for Wright vs 138 from A-Rod?
34 starts for Santana (Mets #1) vs 15 starts for Wang (Yankees #1)?
Those are critical positions for both teams, and the Yankes clearly came up on the short end of the stick.
May 27, 2009 at 9:16 am |
Maine and Wagner missed the last two months of the season. You don’t think their presence would have helped them down the stretch? We had Luis Ayala closing games in September. You had Mariano. Perez had one stint on the 15 day with a bad back. Castro had two stints on the DL, and we had Robinson Cancel starting at catcher. Yes, the “core” was healthy. But we lost our closer for two months, three starting pitchers, two catchers, starting second baseman, and both corner outfielders. We also lost our backup outfielders (Chavez and Pagan). In any case, and no matter how much statistical cherry-picking you do, the Mets had a greater number of DL days than the Yanks and that’s a fact.
I was watching a little bit of the Yankee game last night. Interesting to note that your prize prospect’s fastball is noticeably slower than my “scrub’s” fastball. Joba living at 90-91. WTF?
As for your attack on the Mets’ farm system, didn’t this crappy farm system deliver us Santana and Putz within the past 18 months? And what about Bobby (throws much harder than Joba) Parnell who hit 100mph on the Fenway gun Friday night? Or Mike (also throws harder than Joba) Pelfrey? And lets not forget Reyes and DWright. And now F-Mart is up as well.
Theresa and I just ordered your wedding gift. We hired Mr. Met to perform at the reception. He’ll look great in the wedding photos.
May 27, 2009 at 9:52 am |
Yes, your farm system delivered those guys, but now you have F-Mart and crap. What plyers you used to have has little bearing on who is available now. Thats why all this resting/DL nonsense is going on. You are playing with a short bench, and had only a backup catcher as a pinch hitter. You are lucky its the Nats and Pirates for a while, because the Mets could easily hit a tailspin against real comp.
If I remember correctly, Benitez hit pretty hard on the gun too. What does speed have to do with skill? Joba has been a 100 mph releiver, and his entire pitch arsenal is better than any of the scrubs you threw out there. You might want Pelfry over Joba, but no GM would.
you are comparing Pelfry to a guy who is much better than he is at a younger age. Pelfry has started his entire career. Joba was an unquestionably dominant reliever, and has been shuffled in and out of the rotation. As a starter, Joba is 5-2 with a 3.25 ERA. Pelfry is 22-21 with a 4.30. Thats not close. If Joba stays a starter, the gap will only widen.
May 27, 2009 at 9:54 am |
and bobby Parnell vs Joba as a reliever is a much bigger joke. Parnell needs to allow just 1 run and strike out 60 guys in his next 21 games before he enters into this discussion ever again.
Read it again, 60 Ks, 1 Earned Run, in his next 21 appearances. That puts him in Joba’s class as a reliever. You can start the clock whenever you are ready.
May 27, 2009 at 10:33 am |
My point on Joba is that something is not right with him, and they better figure out what’s going on. No way in hell he should be sitting at 89, 90, 91 with his fastball. His velocity should be better than that. If that’s all he has now, then he is nothing special, and I couldn’t care less about how he performed as a reliever in 2007 and prior to his shoulder problems in 8/08. But his stuff is just not that electric this year, and it’s almost June, so I suspect there’s some lingering shoulder issue. And I never said that Maine, Pelf or Parnell were “better” than Joba, I just pointed out that they all are throwing with much greater velocity than the great white trash hope in the Bronx. What’s Joba’s WHIP this year? 1.50+.
The Redsox aren’t real competition? They swept your asses twice. We took two out of three in fenway with a depleted roster. And our farm system is not bad. The problem is that the best prospects are all in A ball — and there are a handful of really good ones down there. Flores, Holt, Mejia, Marte.
As for Pelfrey, talk to me when Joba logs 200 innings in a season with a sub-4.00 ERA. Until then, you’re speculating on talent as opposed to accomplishments.
May 27, 2009 at 11:21 am |
You didnt face the Sox with all of those guys on the DL.
And you know Joba is a better pitcher than Pelfry. You are climbing Pelf up the ladder each comparison. Soon he’ll be better than CC, then Johan and Halladay. His 13-11 2008 was really one for the ages huh? but his 3-8 with 5.57 ERA and 1.80 WHIP at the same age as Joba goes right out of your mind?
when facing batters as a starter, Joba allows fewer runs. His ERA is more than a run lower. Spin that please.
May 27, 2009 at 11:53 am |
We had an injured Beltran DH’ing. No Reyes, no Cora, no Delgado, and no Church for Saturday or Sunday. Church left the game in the 8th inning on Friday and hasn’t played since.
And, no, I do not know for a fact that Joba is better than Pelf. This is not spin, and only time will tell who is better. Starting pitchers take a long time to develop, and no one knows for certain what kind of pitchers these guys will be become.
You know that I have been a fan of Joba’s and an advocate of his for the starting rotation. And I remain so. But right now, and I am talking about the year 2009, and what I am seeing from Joba. His stuff does not look like his stuff from either 07 or 08, and I suspect there is a problem with him. If Joba has a 91 mph fastball, he is nothing special, and you know that. If this was Joba’s rookie year and you had never seen him before, you would not be so impressed. Can you honestly deny that?
May 27, 2009 at 12:13 pm |
Yes, actually. You claim to watch the Yankees regularly right? Did you see him go down 4-0 to the Sox, and then promptly strike out 12 of the next 14 guys? There are only a few guys in all of baseball capable of that. you are trying to tell me that seeing a rookie do that, and sport a 2-1 recond with a 3.90 ERA, wouldn’t impress you. Once again, Joba is the age of most rookies. If you dont like 12K’s through 14 batters at anytime, much less from a hypothetical “rookie” I don’t know what to tell you. the kid has 21 career starts.
Pelfry sucks, and you’d rather have Joba.
May 27, 2009 at 12:43 pm |
Yeah, I remember that start well, and I saw quite a bit of it. That’s the best stuff he had all year, but since then has has regressed back to his March/April fastball. That’s the start when he jumped around the mound screaming and fist-pumping like he had just won the world series after striking out Lowell to end the top of the fifth inning in a game in which he was losing 4-3.
He also has a 1.57 WHIP. As for his 2-1 record, you know I don’t think wins mean shit. But still, 2 wins in 9 starts is nothing to write home about. Keep saying Pelfrey sucks, and he’ll just keeping posting quality start after quality start. Last year, I would have told you I’d rather have Joba. This year, I am having some second thoughts. But it has nothing to do with stats or results. It has do do with his diminished stuff following shoulder woes.
May 27, 2009 at 1:07 pm |
So, if he stays a starter, case of beer bet on who has the better year?
And we can quibble about the meaning of a better year when the time comes.
May 27, 2009 at 1:20 pm |
But if they move him out of the pen, wouldn’t that be because he wasn’t good enough to be a starter?
We need to establish parameters.
May 27, 2009 at 2:04 pm |
Not if they consider the pen a bigger need with cc, beckett, pettite, wang and hughes as the 5.
May 27, 2009 at 2:15 pm |
But if they move him to the pen, how do they go about transitioning him back to starter and dealing with the inning issues all over again? It would be very short-sighted. Better to leave him alone and see what you have in him as a starter, and switch Hughes to the pen if desperate for relief help. Hughes should be on a tighter inning limit this year than Joba.
Should have just signed Juan Cruz like I had said.
May 29, 2009 at 11:04 pm |
Big Pelf really “sucks.” 7 2/3, 1 earned tonight.
May 31, 2009 at 7:19 pm |
And the “scrub” gave up 0 runs today. Please do me a favor. Livian is pitching tomorrow. Say he sucks please.