Upon Another Solid Prediction

On August 17th, I asked “Whats the over/under on a Johan injury? I’m sure he’s looking over his shoulder in the clubhouse, worrying that a shelf is going to fall on him or something.”

On Tuesday, it was announced that Johan would be undergoing elbow surgery, and would be done for the season. The hits just keep coming for the Mets.

I also believe that I am on record as saying that Johan was not the right move for the Yankees, even though Hughes and Kennedy  were the asking price. Kennedy is in the minors and injured, and Hughes has thus far only proven to be an excellent set-up man and a starter with flashes of brilliance. However, I maintain that Johan is too slight of a guy, whose velocity has dipped noticeably over the past several years. He is still beating NL hitters, and putting up good numbers, but I a) don’t see him doing that against the AL East and b) see a very Pedro-like trajectory for him injury-wise.

Upon What are the Chances

The Mets lost to the Phillies 9-7 yesterday. There is not much unusual about that sentence. The Mets have been dreadful this year, hampered by injury and inconsistent pitching. The Phillies are the defending World Series Champions, and have been in control in the NL East for quite some time now. However, the circumstances of the game yesterday are among the most unusual I have ever witnessed.

1) The winning pitcher for the Phillies was none other than Pedro Martinez. Pedro was rehabbing from surgery for most of this year, and had been openly campaigning for a spot in a major league rotation. The Mets did not find a spot for their former starter, but the Phillies were able to make room. While Pedro was not overly contentious, and he was given a decent reception by the Citi Field crowd, I am sure that it felt good for him to get a win against the team who didn’t want him back.

2) Oliver Perez was horrible. He gave up two 3-run homers in the first inning, didn’t make it out of the first inning, and was lifted for a reliever with a 3-0 count against, you guessed it, Pedro Martinez. Perez signed a pretty big contract in the off-season, and he has been terrible.

Sidebar- There comes a time when the best laid-out arguments fall flat in the face of cold hard fact. Perez is 3-4 with a 6.82 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. He has 58 walks in 66 innings pitched. He is making 12 million dollars this year, and has been just awful.  

3) Angel Pagan hit an inside-the-park homerun as the Mets’ first batter of the game. Inside the park homeruns are rare, and the fact that this feat occurred in this particular game contributes to the oddness.

4) In the 9th inning, the Mets mounted a comeback against struggling Philly closer Brad Lidge. They scored a run, and had runners on first and second with no outs, thanks in part to an error by second baseman Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett was in the game because All-Star Chase Utley was getting a day off.   Jeff Francoeur hit a line drive up the middle which Bruntlett snatched. Both runners were on the move, and Bruntlett turned an unassisted triple play to end the game.

So I ask you; What are the freaking odds?? There have only been 15 unassisted triple plays in MLB history. Only one of those had ever ended the game before yesterday. Oliver Perez signed for 12 million, and gets beaten like a ragdoll, while Pedro wins the game.

Yesterday was a micorcosm of the Mets’ season, and times are tough in Queens.

Upon a Win Tracker

I had the Yankees pegged for 99 wins this season. At 72-43 as of last night, the Yankees would need to go 27-20 over the rest of the season to hit that mark.

Another reader of this blog had them pegged for 89 wins. To hit that mark, the Yankees would have to go 17-30 over the rest of the season.

What do you think is more likely; that a team that has gone 29 games over .500 during the first 115 going 7 games over the rest of the way or 13 games under?

And we will ignore our Mets predictions….

Upon a Solid Prediction

Last week, I previewed the recently concluded four game series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. At the risk of dislocating my shoulder from patting myself on the back, I was right on the money with my prediction that the Yankees would sweep. This was a decisive match up between the first and second place teams in the AL East, and the Yankees provided clear separation at the top. They are now 6.5 games in front, and appear to have taken control of the division.

On Thursday, the Yankees struck first, battering John Smoltz and reliever Billy Traber. Smoltz was subsequently designated for assignment, ending his time in Boston in ignominious fashion, and possibly bringing his career to an end. Joba Chamberlain was less than stellar, but was backed by some hot Yankee bats. This game got the proverbial monkey off the backs of the Yankees, as they had failed to win a single game against their rivals to that point.

On Friday, the teams waged an epic 15 inning battle. Front-line starters AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett matched zeroes for 7 innings, and the bullpens continued the trend well into the night. The Yankees got great relief from a combination of Alfredo Aceves, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Brian Bruney and Phil Coke. The Red Sox also shut the Yankees down, until the 15thinning, when Alex Rodriguez ended the game with a walk-off home run off of Junichi Tazawa, who was making his major league debut. The Yankees now have 10 walk-off wins this season, and A-Rod became the latest victim of the Burnett pie-in-the-face, the team tradition which is visited on the hero of the game.

I attended the game on Saturday, and saw a gem by CC Sabathia. The normally contentious environment between NY and Boston fans was tempered, as Sox fans did not seem to be able to muster much energy after two heartbreaking games. CC had a perfect game and then a no-hitter going, and cruised for most of the game. The Yankees picked on the out-of-place Kevin Youklis, who was moonlighting in left field due to Jason Bay’s injury. Jeteradded some insurance runs later in the game with a homerun which barely cleared the wall. David Ortiz struck out looking against David Robertson to end the game, and had an awful first three games.

In last night’s finale, the Yankees sent Andy Pettite to the hill to face the Sox young lefty John Lester. The teams again matched zeroes, and the Sox went 31 innings combined in the series without scoring a single run. A-Rod went deep again in the 7th, before Victor Martinez finally got the Sox on the board in the 8th with a two run bomb off of reliever Phil Coke. This Phil was not the one many Yankee fans expected to see in the 8th, as Phil Hughes had worked only sparingly in the series, and has been very efficient in his setup bridge to Mariano. The Yankees were not down long however, as Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeirawent back-to-back in the bottom half of the inning. Nick Swisher added two RBI as well, as the Yankees scored 4-runs with two outs to take a 5-2 lead.  Mariano Rivera came in in the 9th, and retired the Sox around a leadoff hit and a walk to pinch-hitter Ortiz.

With their 4 game sweep, the Yankees established their ownership of the AL East’s top spot. They are now 18-5 in the second half, and have won 7 straight. Except for a bad series at the White Sox where they lost 3 of 4, the Yankees have been on fire. They welcome Toronto in for a three game series before embarking on a 10 game road trip (4 @ Seattle,  3 @ Oakland and 3 @ Boston).

Boston is trending in the other direction, having lost 6 straight to the Yankees and Rays, and going 8-14 on the second half. They now go home to face Detroit, followed by three games at Texas, with whom they are now tied in the wild card race. Next comes three games at Toronto, before the Yankees  come into Boston for a three game set.

The Yankees and Red Sox had not met each other since June 9-11, when the Sox won 3 straight to move their head-to-head mark against the Yankees to 8-0. This weekend’s series proved that a lot has changed since then.

Upon a Huge Series

If you are a baseball fan, these next 4 days for the Yankees are exactly what make watching baseball great. A 4-game, early-August series against your main rival, with serious implications as far as the division goes.

Here’s what we know for sure:

1) The Yankees have a two-and-a-half game lead in the Division, following their two-game sweep of the Blue Jays, coupled with two straight losses by Boston at Tampa.

2) The Red Sox lead the season series 8-0.

These two stats do not seem to mesh, and speak to the competitiveness of this division. The series should be quite interesting, as the teams have not yet met each other at what can be called “full strength”. This time will be no exception, as Wang is out for the year for the Yankees, and Bay, Wakefield and Daisuke are ailing for the Sox.

The Pitching Matchups:

Thurs: Joba Chamberlain vs John Smoltz

Fri: AJ Burnett vs Josh Beckett

Sat: CC Sabbathia vs Clay Buchholz

Sun: Andy Pettite vs Jon Lester

These are four good pitching matchups, which again is what you want in a series. The Yankees wisely moved Sergio Mitre’s start to last night in Toronto, and have their four horses throwing. Joba is approaching his innings limit (ambiguous though it may be) but will set the tone for the weekend as he matches up with the up-and-down Smoltz. When the Red Sox grabbed Smoltz in the offseason, his big game pedigree had to be one of the major selling points. This is officially a big game, and Smoltz has not yet looked the part of a big game pitcher as he recovers from arm trouble.

On Friday, old Marlin-mates Beckett and Burnett hook-up for a fastball fest. Beckett is the Sox’ ace,  while Burnett has been very good but needs to bounce back from his first poor outing of the second half in his last start against the White Sox.

Saturday features CC vs Buchholz, with the Yankees workhorse vs a Sox starter who has not made it past the 5th inning and was recently shopped in a potential deal for Roy Halladay.

The finale on Sunday matches the old lefty against the young lefty. Jon Lester has been a dominant strikeout pitcher, while Pettite rebounded from a string of losses with a strong outing against Toronto on Tuesday.

The Potential Outcomes-

Sox 4-0- Another sweep would be demoralizing for the Yankees, and would transform a 2.5 game lead to a 1.5 game defecit

Sox 3-1- Still bad, but at least the half game lead remains.

2-2- The lead stays the same, and the Yankees move on.

Yankees 3-1- I’ve heard this as the result most Yankee fans would be happy with. Win the series.  4.5 game lead. Show that things have changed in the Yankees Favor

Yankees 4-0- Oh its on now! The first 8 games mean nothing, the mojo is back. 6.5 game lead and running away in mid-August.

Prediction- Yankees sweep, enough of the nonsense.

Upon an Interesting Stat

Courtesy of ESPN.com’s  “Did You Know?” section:

Mark Reynolds has hit as many home runs (4) in three games at Citi Field as David Wright has hit there all season

Interesting. With 32 jacks to this point, Reynolds has already eclipsed the career-high of 28 HR that he established last year, his second in the majors. He trails only Albert Pujols for the NL lead in bombs. Reynolds seems to be developing into an Adam Dunn type; high HR, high K’s, as he is 2nd in HR and 1st in Ks.

David Wright has a high average, high on-base %, and is playing quite well with a depleted supporting cast around him. However, it is strange that Wright (typically a 26-30 HR guy) has only 4 Citi Field HR in 52 home games, while Reynolds accomplished the feat in just 3 games. Wright has certainly been robbed of homers by the layout of the park, as opposed to Shea Stadium. There is a chart which lists players who have lost HR in the transition from one park to the next. Still, seems like the team’s primary healthy power guy should have more than 4, doesn’t it?