According to various published reports, Yankee manager Joe Girardi has named Phil Hughes the Yankees’ fifth starter. Hughes emerges from a spring training competition which had included Alfredo Aceves, Sergio Mitre, Chad Gaudin and most notably Joba Chamberlain.
I have always like Hughes as a starter, dating back to his 7 inning no-hitter against Texas a few years back, which ended due to an injury. At the time, I remember thinking “this kid is putting it all together”.
So where does this leave the Yankee rotation and bullpen?
- Phil Hughes - Hughes will get the chance to live up to the potential which made him a hugely touted prospect. He was invaluable in the set up role for Mariano Rivera last season, but this role seems destined for Joba. The official reasoning from the manager: ”We evaluated the whole spring,” Girardi said. “I’m very excited with the improvement in [Hughes'] changeup. To me, that made a big difference in who he is. Our decision is for him to be the fifth starter, and all the other guys are competing to be in the bullpen.” I cant help but think that Hughes’ performance in the postseason (including an unsightly 16.2 ERA in the World Series) helped make the decision to take him out of the bullpen easier.
- Joba Chamberlain -The Joba Rules have apparently been for naught. All the back and forth about limiting innings, and pitch counts…etc didn’t amount to anything. Strange moves by the Yankees in retrospect, but also probably the most prudent. When the Yankees traded for Javy Vazquez this offseason and re-signed Andy Pettite, there was only one open spot in the rotation. Girardi made the spring competition an open one, with all 5 candidates up for the spot. Hughes is the winner, which means Joba is back in the 8th inning role. This is where he has dazzled in the past, and his 1.50 ERA and 79 Ks in 60 IP make him an excellent candidate for this spot. His fastball is faster when he can come out blazing, and that makes his other pitches nasty. Joba could easily become the heir apparent to Mariano, whenever Rivera decides to hang it up.
- Alfredo Aceves -Early returns showed Alfredo Aceves outpacing both Hughes and Chamberlain, but realistically he seems more suited for long relief, and spot starts. He picked up double digit wins out of the pen last season, and has an arm which seems to get ready quickly.
- Sergio Mitre- Should remain a bullpen pitcher and long reliever.
- Chad Gaudin- Was released by the team.
I can’t say I disagree with the Yankees’ decision in the Spring. However, it does make all the Joba Rules nonsense look silly.
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March 25, 2010 at 12:45 pm |
You know that I have always liked Hughes better, but I still feel like its a long-term mistake for the franchise and a disservice to Chamberlain the individual to relegate him to pen duty simply because he failed to become a dominant starter immediately. It generally takes time to develop a starter, and their lack of patience with Joba shows just how difficult it can be to be properly develop young talent in a market where fans want to win every year. The Mets’ brilliant front office is scheming at this moment to ruin Jennry Mejia in a short-sighted attempt to save their ignorant asses.
They should not have traded for Vazquez. They should have made Joba the 4, Hughes the 5, and kept Bruney (who they inexplicably gave away for nothing) and signed Dotel to bolster the pen. Relievers are a dime a dozen. Starters are not. Cheap, quality starters under team control for years are invaluable these days. Both Joba and Hughes should be starters until they prove incapable of performing the job, and neither has done that yet.
Now its time for Hughes Rules. Have fun.
March 25, 2010 at 1:54 pm |
Hughes has a longer leash than Joba had. I agree the move was silly, but still Mariano can’t last forever and Joba could be the type of long term closer that they Yankees havent had to look for for 15 years.
Bruney was Farnsworth 2.0, heart attack every time.
March 25, 2010 at 1:58 pm |
Long term closer is an oxymoron.
Mariano is a freak of nature. Don’t expect his replacement to be nearly as good, or to last 1/4 as long. These guys invariably burn out quickly. Joba might burn out before Rivera.
March 25, 2010 at 2:30 pm |
To clarify things, I don’t think its silly to put Hughes in the rotation over Chamberlain. I think Hughes is the better pitcher. I think its silly not to have both of them in the rotation.
March 25, 2010 at 6:08 pm |
There is still time too. Pettite is done after this year.
March 25, 2010 at 9:06 pm |
As is Vazquez. Just hard to transition Joba back to the rotation again. But whatever.
For and Keith, here are the pitchers I expect to outperform their average draft position. This is NOT a list of the best pitchers. Just a list of the best pitchers to draft after you load up on offense in the first 7-9 rounds without taking any pitchers. This is based on 12 man 5×5 league.
Guys worth picks in rounds 9-12 (not in order) Scott Baker, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Garza, Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Tommy Hanson, Ubaldo Jimenez (freaking beast), Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Ricky Nolasco, Wandy Rodriguez (underrated stud), James Shields, Javier Vazquez, Brett Anderson, and Jared Weaver. My advise is to load up on stud hitters the first 7 or 8 rounds, then grab a couple of those guys to anchor your staff.
Next tier worth drafting rounds 13-16 (not in order) — Gavin Floyd, Jeff Niemann, Clay Buchholz, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang, Tim Hudson,
Scott Kazmir (make sure healthy), Kevin Slowey, Jonathan Sanchez, Ryan Dempster, Francisco Liriano, Derek Lowe, Max Scherzer, Randy Wolf.
Rounds 17-20 — Joe Blanton, Mark Buerle, Wade Davis, Jorge de la Rosa, Jason Hammel, Hiroki Kuroda (very underrated, great WHIP), Shaun Marcum, Rick Porcello, Phil Hughes, and Brett Myers.
And, finally, “end-games” for your bench (or the very, very end of a deep rotation) — Homer Bailey, Derek Holland, Jon Niese, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Latos (future stud, I love this kid’s stuff), Brian Matusz, Justin Masterson, Felipe Paulino (fangraphs had him at 2nd highest average fastball last year behind Ubaldo Jimenez and no one will draft him), Clayton Richard (good young lefty in Petco), Marc Rzepczynski, Chris Tillman, Chris Volstad, Rick Vandenhurk, Kevin Correia, Sean Gallagher, and Carlos Carrasco.
My fantasy advise — draft hitters early and often because they have the highest statistical probability of meeting expectations and get hurt less. Then get 2-4 guys from list one, 2-3 guys from list two, and then load your bench up with youg guys with upside from list three such as Latos, Matusz, Paulino, etc. and hope one or two of them come through. As for closers, wait until after there is a big run and grab the best of the rest in rounds 12-18 such as Heath Bell, Chad Qualls, Rafael Soriano, Jose Valverde, Octavio Dotel, Matt Capps, and Frank Francisco. Before drafting closers too early, remember that 35% of opening day closers lose their jobs during the season.
So you know that I put my $ where my mouth is, my 9-man staff is Felix Hernandez (protected from last year when I drafted him in the 7th round as my first pitcher selected), Adam Wainright (protected from last year when I took him in the 9th or 10th round), Brett Anderson, Kevin Slowey Hiroki Kuroda, Aaron Harang, Jeff Niemann, Chad Qualls and Jason Frazer (hoping Toronto makes him their closer). I drafted 5 pitchers for my 6 man bench (can always trade starting pitching if any of these guys work out) — Felipe Paulino, Clayton Richard, Rick VandenHurk, Chris Tillman and Mike Adams (closer for Padres if Heath Bell is traded to Twins).
Hitters I like for break-out seasons — Jay Bruce, Chris Davis, Travis Snider, Carlos Gonzalez, Rickie Weeks, Andrew McCutchen, Howie Kendrick, Ian Stewart (2nd base eligibility with 30 HR potential), Adam Jones, Jason Heyward, Brandon Wood, and Colby Rasmus.
To be clear, I’m not saying these are the best players. Just that these are players I expect to outperform their average draft position. So, if you see a guy on my list going in the 15th rounds in most drafts, take him anywhere from round 14 thereafter.
Good luck. Every fantasy player needs it.
March 26, 2010 at 8:15 am |
Why is Javy done? You don’t think he’ll last?
March 26, 2010 at 8:44 am |
Free agent, like Pettitte.
March 26, 2010 at 8:46 am |
Add David Price to my second tier of pitchers as a 14-16th rounder, and I think Juan Pierre will be an excellent bargain this year worth taking around round 12. Leading off for the WhiteSox, he should hit .290 with 50 stolen bases.
March 26, 2010 at 8:51 am |
Yeah, but I meant retirement. Javy is much younger, Pettite has 5 rings and no major milestones within reasonable reach.
March 26, 2010 at 9:05 am |
I thought you meant free agent and thus an opening in the rotation. And so you know, my track record for drafting pitchers is impeccable. Hitters, not so much.
March 26, 2010 at 9:17 am |
Other starting pitchers worth rostering for your bench, i.e., “end gamers”: Stephen Strassburg (duh), Ian Kennedy, and Garrett Mock.
March 26, 2010 at 9:38 am |
Thats right, hop on the Ian K train. I knew he was a baller, lol.
check this article by Cras on the Mets rotation:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2010/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=5026560
March 26, 2010 at 10:32 am |
Yeah, as a bench player on a fantasy roster. Not sure that qualifies has hopping on his train.
March 26, 2010 at 11:13 am |
Meanwhile, the Mets may sign Chad Gaudin….
March 26, 2010 at 11:23 am |
I hope not. They have enough shit like him. 6th starter/middle reliever.
March 27, 2010 at 11:00 pm |
Thanks for the advice, Sherm. I’m eating my heart out because I picked up a gig on Tuesday, thenight of my draft so I wil have to autopick. I would like to implement your strategy of not drafting pitchers until the 7th round.
Last year I won my league with the help of some key mid-season trades. I had drafted too much speed so I traded Crawford for Morneaux and later managed to get Jason Bay. My best pick was a late round Ibanez and a mid-late round Chris Carpenter. Also had Lincecum as a 2nd round pick. (I know that goes against your strategy but between him and Carpenter I dominated most pitching categories.) I agree with you about not taking closers too early. You can always pick them up as the season goes along and they only help in one category. And lately, with twitter and sites like rotoworld it’s easy to stay ahead of the curve.