Upon the MVP Darkhorse

So the consensus among most baseball people is that Joe Mauer is the AL MVP.  Hard to put up a huge fuss with that.

Mauer is batting an amazing .371, with 28 HR, 89 RBI, and an OPS of 1.04. Huge numbers for a catcher. He missed April with an injury, but has come on like crazy since then. And the below stat is also interesting.

Joe Mauer — PA: 552	RBI: 89
ML Avg. Player with PA: 552	RBI: 63

But here is my counter- Alex Rodriguez. A Rod missed time at the beginning of the season with an injury as well. He is batting .283 with 27 HR,  89 RBI, and a .921 OPS. Here are his numbers compared to the average player.

Alex Rodriguez — PA: 508	RBI: 89
ML Avg. Player with PA: 508	RBI: 58

Now lets look at the teams’ records with each in the lineup:

Yankees with A-Rod: 77-40

Twins with Mauer: 66-61

So, couldn’t the case be made that A-rod is as valuable to the Yankees as Mauer is to the Twins? His team is 37 games over .500 with him in the lineup. The Twins are 5 games over with Mauer.

Mark Teixeira, an MVP candidate in his own right, was batting .200 in April 3 HR 10 RBI,  without A-Rod protecting him.  Since A-Rod’s return, he is hitting  .305 with 34 HR and 108 RBI.

So A-Rod has nearly the exact RBI and HR production of Mauer, in 50 fewer AB. His team is 32 games better than Mauer’s with each in the lineup. He has a much lower average, and a lower OPS, true.  And his clutch stats are not on par with Mauer.

Still, for someone that has received no attention for MVP, he has interesting numbers production-wise relative to the favorite, and his team has by far the best record in baseball since his return. If Mauer misses the playoffs on an 81-win team, while Rodriguez heads to the playoffs on a 100+ win team with the best record in all of baseball, what then? Do gaudy average and OPS numbers outweigh production, winning, and effect on teammates? If your team as a whole is only slightly better in terms of wins and losses with you in the lineup, shouldn’t a player whose team is significantly better in the same situation be deemed more valuable?

Upon Eli over Brady

Is Eli the new Tom Brady?

With time running out in the fourth quarter on Sunday, and their teams trailing, both Eli Manning and Tom Brady were given the football deep in their own territory and asked to lead a game-winning drive.

In February of 2008, both men were given a similar task on the biggest of stages; the Super Bowl. Eli Manning pulled magic out of his hat and marched the Giants down the field, in the process creating an indellible moment in Super Bowl history with the Tyree catch. Tom Brady, who had won three rings with late drives leading to game-winning field goals, appeared poised to create one more miracle finish. However, the Giants’ defense was not willing to cooperate and be on the bad end of history.

Flash forward to last week. Tom Brady and the Patriots did it again, coming from behind to beat the Buffalo Bills. After an injury stopped his 2008 season almost before it began, it appeared that Brady was back to his old ways.  If you give him the ball with time on the clock, watch out.

Now onto Sunday. In the 1:00 contest, the Jets and Patriots linked up  in a highly anticipated divisional contest. The Jets were clinging to a slim 16-9 lead, and Brady got the ball with just under 2 minutes on his own 10 yard line. The Pats had 5 plays for 18 yards, and lost the game. Credit should certainly be given to the Jets’ defense, who played almost the opposite of the prevent. Also, the Pats were missing Wes Welker, a Brady favorite who has been key in improvising offense. Still, Brady has come back countless times against some very tough defenses, and has done it with many receivers.

 Later last night, the Giants matched up with the Cowboys in another divisonal contest. After a back-and-forth game for the first 57 minutes, the Giants got the ball with 3:40 left, trailing 31-30. A holding call on Rich Seubert negated a good first down completion pushed the Giants back to their own 15, and set up a first and 20 with 3:24 left. Here is what followed:

• 2 yard pass to Bradshaw; 12 yard pass to David Hagan on a scramble; 2:00 minute warning.
• 11 yard pass to Steve Smith; no-huddle incompletion to Mario Manningham; 13-yard pass to Kevin Boss; 6 yard pass to Steve Smith; incomplete pass to Smith. 39 seconds left. Timeout Dallas.
• 8 yard completion on a tipped pass to Manningham (great concentration by the wideout); 12 yard completion to Smith. Timeout Giants with 13 seconds.
• Eli Manning sneak for 2 yards; timeout Giants. Kicker freeze timeout Cowboys. 37 yard field goal Tynes. Ballgame.

With a very Brady-esque drive, Eli Manning led the Giants down the field, managed the clock, and put his kicker in position to win the game. The weird thing is, Giants fans expected it to go this way. Smith and Manningham may have broken out in the same game, and Manning found them and Boss when he needed to. He didn’t panic, hurried but didn’t rush, and seemed in control the entire time.

So, with apologies to Brady and Rothelesberger, Eli Manning may just be the QB that fans would want with the ball in his hands and the game on the line.

 (PS- Tuck injury is worrysome, and the trip that caused it was BS; the defense got gashed by the running game of Dallas; the Giants running game needs to get going; I am glad I picked up Manningham week 1)

Upon NY Football 2009

The 2009 NFL season kicked off on Thursday of last week, and a rare Monday Night Football double header concluded week one last night. Both the New York football teams secured wins, and gave fans their first positive signs for the upcoming year.

The Giants- The Giants began their defense of the NFC East title with an important divisional victory against the Washington Redskins.  Dominant defense and solid kicking led the G-men to a 23-17 win.

Offense- The Giants began the season with a solid, if not spectacular, ofeensive game. Eli Manning threw for 256 yards, with one TD and one interception. He hooked up with second-year receiver Mario Manningham on a nifty catch and run, with Manningham tight-roping the  sideline for a 30-yard score. Steve Smith was his favorite target in this game, catching 6 balls for 80 yards. First-round pick Hakeem Nicks was injured in the game, and had to leave with a sprained foot.  Overall, it seems that Manning still has to establish a repore with all his receivers, but the emergence of Boss and Smith as solid options when a completion is needed was nice to see.

On the ground, the Giants were not able to muster much, and the team also suffered to loss of third RB Danny Ware. Ware injured his elbow on the opening kickoff, and was not able to play for the rest of the game. Ahmad Bradshaw ran 12 times for 60 yards, and Brandon Jacobs had 16 carries for 46 yards. The Redskins huge offseason acquisition was Albert Haynesworth, and he always clogs up the middle on defense.

Lawrence Tynes, who has recleimed the starting kicker job he lost last season after injuring himself, was perfect on three field goals and two extra points. Two of his kicks bent nicely through the uprights after starting wide-right, suggesting that Tynes has a good handle on the often tricky winds at Giants Stadium. 

Ovwerall, this was a decent effort on opening day, against a Redskins team with a solid defense. Look for the Giants to continue to grow in sync as the games progress.

 Defense- On defense, the Giants showed what could be a formidable 11-man squad. Osi Umenyiora announced his return as a dominant defensive player with a bullrush from the edge, strip of Skins QB Jason Campbell, fumble recovery, and 37-yard runback for a TD. Osi missed last season with an injury, but showed signs of returning to his All-pro form with 3 tackles, a sack, and the aforementioned fumble-touchdown. While Umenyiora was out in 2008, Justin Tuck emerged as a star, and he showed no signs of slowing. He had four tackles and 1.5 sacks, combining with Osi to cause havoc from the edge. Corey Webster, who got involved in a pushing/wrestling match with Santana Moss, picked off Campbell and looked good in coverage. 

The giants added several weapons for new defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan, who replaces the departed Steve Spagnuolo. The variety of looks which the Giants can throw at an opposing offense, combined with the rotation of highly-skilled players, allows them to have fresh players coming at the opposing QB from all angles throughout the game.  The Redskins only offensive score came on a fake field goal from Washington punter Hunter Smith.

The Giants limited the Redskins to 272 yards of total offense, and  the game was not as close as the final score would indicate.

Overall- The Giants should be pleased with their effort in the first game out, but there are still areas to clean up. The running game needs to establish itself, and the team needs to take care of the ball better. Eli fumbled twice, and was picked off. The Giants will head into Dallas next week, and will need their offense to handle some of the load, as the Cowboys offense looked good against Tampa. However,  I was happy to hear Brandon Jacobs stoking the fires for this rivalry, when he was heard on the radio saying “the Cowboys receivers looked good, especially when they were wide open.”

I’m ready for a good game next week.

Upon an Uncertain Future

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&page=rumblings090903

In the above article, ESPN’s Jason Stark looks at the Mets and their prospects in seasons beyond the nightmare 2009 campaign. Some interesting notes:

On Help from the Minors- 

As big a nightmare as the big league season may have been, life wasn’t exactly nirvana down below, either. The Mets’ Triple-A and Double-A teams are a combined 60 games under .500. Not one full-season Mets affiliate has a winning record. And we haven’t even gotten into the whole Tony Bernazard affair.

“That system is a mess,” said one NL executive. “They’re going to have to have a complete organizational, philosophical direction change.”

“That’s not a good system,” said an AL exec. “The good prospects they do have are a long ways away. They don’t have depth in their system or on their roster.”

While I am sure that Stark and the unnamed execs with whom he spoke don’t have the baseball IQ that some would require to make these proclamations, its not a rosy outlook.

On the Rotation-

“What are they going to do for a rotation behind Johan [Santana]?” asked one scout. “Oliver Perez has turned into their Adam Eaton. [John] Maine has reverted back to a Triple-A pitcher. [Jonathon] Niese is a rookie. Bobby Parnell is Aaron Heilman all over again. [Mike] Pelfrey is just a [No.] 4 or 5 [starter]. So they have to go out and get at least two, and probably three, starters.

Again, we can take this one scout’s word as gospel, as I am sure there are plenty of lousy scouts in baseball. However, I tend to agree with his assessment of the arms the Mets could potentially be throwing out there.

On the Outlook for Reshaping the Team:

And if they don’t make some kind of significant change to a mix of players their fans have lost faith in, can they possibly sell the 2010 Mets to a town where Yankees caps now seem to outnumber Mets caps by about 1,000 to 1?

The guys they could trade, they can’t bring themselves to trade. The guys they’d be happy to trade are guys nobody wants. And there aren’t nearly enough dollars in the old Wilpon checking account to solve this conundrum with money alone.

“So which way do they go?” asked one exec. “They don’t have any real good options. And that’s trouble.”

There is more in this article, and while I will not vouch for everything that is written there, it does reemphasize some of the points I have been making re: the Mets on this blog and in the comments.  I don’t think the Mets have a team, healthy or not, to compete with the NL East. They have $30 million coming off the books, but they will have to spend it prudently. The bullpen needs which helped doom them in 2007 and 2008 have been addressed, but now other gaping holes loom.

Upon Another Solid Prediction

On August 17th, I asked “Whats the over/under on a Johan injury? I’m sure he’s looking over his shoulder in the clubhouse, worrying that a shelf is going to fall on him or something.”

On Tuesday, it was announced that Johan would be undergoing elbow surgery, and would be done for the season. The hits just keep coming for the Mets.

I also believe that I am on record as saying that Johan was not the right move for the Yankees, even though Hughes and Kennedy  were the asking price. Kennedy is in the minors and injured, and Hughes has thus far only proven to be an excellent set-up man and a starter with flashes of brilliance. However, I maintain that Johan is too slight of a guy, whose velocity has dipped noticeably over the past several years. He is still beating NL hitters, and putting up good numbers, but I a) don’t see him doing that against the AL East and b) see a very Pedro-like trajectory for him injury-wise.

Upon What are the Chances

The Mets lost to the Phillies 9-7 yesterday. There is not much unusual about that sentence. The Mets have been dreadful this year, hampered by injury and inconsistent pitching. The Phillies are the defending World Series Champions, and have been in control in the NL East for quite some time now. However, the circumstances of the game yesterday are among the most unusual I have ever witnessed.

1) The winning pitcher for the Phillies was none other than Pedro Martinez. Pedro was rehabbing from surgery for most of this year, and had been openly campaigning for a spot in a major league rotation. The Mets did not find a spot for their former starter, but the Phillies were able to make room. While Pedro was not overly contentious, and he was given a decent reception by the Citi Field crowd, I am sure that it felt good for him to get a win against the team who didn’t want him back.

2) Oliver Perez was horrible. He gave up two 3-run homers in the first inning, didn’t make it out of the first inning, and was lifted for a reliever with a 3-0 count against, you guessed it, Pedro Martinez. Perez signed a pretty big contract in the off-season, and he has been terrible.

Sidebar- There comes a time when the best laid-out arguments fall flat in the face of cold hard fact. Perez is 3-4 with a 6.82 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. He has 58 walks in 66 innings pitched. He is making 12 million dollars this year, and has been just awful.  

3) Angel Pagan hit an inside-the-park homerun as the Mets’ first batter of the game. Inside the park homeruns are rare, and the fact that this feat occurred in this particular game contributes to the oddness.

4) In the 9th inning, the Mets mounted a comeback against struggling Philly closer Brad Lidge. They scored a run, and had runners on first and second with no outs, thanks in part to an error by second baseman Eric Bruntlett. Bruntlett was in the game because All-Star Chase Utley was getting a day off.   Jeff Francoeur hit a line drive up the middle which Bruntlett snatched. Both runners were on the move, and Bruntlett turned an unassisted triple play to end the game.

So I ask you; What are the freaking odds?? There have only been 15 unassisted triple plays in MLB history. Only one of those had ever ended the game before yesterday. Oliver Perez signed for 12 million, and gets beaten like a ragdoll, while Pedro wins the game.

Yesterday was a micorcosm of the Mets’ season, and times are tough in Queens.

Upon a Win Tracker

I had the Yankees pegged for 99 wins this season. At 72-43 as of last night, the Yankees would need to go 27-20 over the rest of the season to hit that mark.

Another reader of this blog had them pegged for 89 wins. To hit that mark, the Yankees would have to go 17-30 over the rest of the season.

What do you think is more likely; that a team that has gone 29 games over .500 during the first 115 going 7 games over the rest of the way or 13 games under?

And we will ignore our Mets predictions….

Upon a Solid Prediction

Last week, I previewed the recently concluded four game series between the Yankees and the Red Sox. At the risk of dislocating my shoulder from patting myself on the back, I was right on the money with my prediction that the Yankees would sweep. This was a decisive match up between the first and second place teams in the AL East, and the Yankees provided clear separation at the top. They are now 6.5 games in front, and appear to have taken control of the division.

On Thursday, the Yankees struck first, battering John Smoltz and reliever Billy Traber. Smoltz was subsequently designated for assignment, ending his time in Boston in ignominious fashion, and possibly bringing his career to an end. Joba Chamberlain was less than stellar, but was backed by some hot Yankee bats. This game got the proverbial monkey off the backs of the Yankees, as they had failed to win a single game against their rivals to that point.

On Friday, the teams waged an epic 15 inning battle. Front-line starters AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett matched zeroes for 7 innings, and the bullpens continued the trend well into the night. The Yankees got great relief from a combination of Alfredo Aceves, Phil Hughes, Mariano Rivera, Brian Bruney and Phil Coke. The Red Sox also shut the Yankees down, until the 15thinning, when Alex Rodriguez ended the game with a walk-off home run off of Junichi Tazawa, who was making his major league debut. The Yankees now have 10 walk-off wins this season, and A-Rod became the latest victim of the Burnett pie-in-the-face, the team tradition which is visited on the hero of the game.

I attended the game on Saturday, and saw a gem by CC Sabathia. The normally contentious environment between NY and Boston fans was tempered, as Sox fans did not seem to be able to muster much energy after two heartbreaking games. CC had a perfect game and then a no-hitter going, and cruised for most of the game. The Yankees picked on the out-of-place Kevin Youklis, who was moonlighting in left field due to Jason Bay’s injury. Jeteradded some insurance runs later in the game with a homerun which barely cleared the wall. David Ortiz struck out looking against David Robertson to end the game, and had an awful first three games.

In last night’s finale, the Yankees sent Andy Pettite to the hill to face the Sox young lefty John Lester. The teams again matched zeroes, and the Sox went 31 innings combined in the series without scoring a single run. A-Rod went deep again in the 7th, before Victor Martinez finally got the Sox on the board in the 8th with a two run bomb off of reliever Phil Coke. This Phil was not the one many Yankee fans expected to see in the 8th, as Phil Hughes had worked only sparingly in the series, and has been very efficient in his setup bridge to Mariano. The Yankees were not down long however, as Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeirawent back-to-back in the bottom half of the inning. Nick Swisher added two RBI as well, as the Yankees scored 4-runs with two outs to take a 5-2 lead.  Mariano Rivera came in in the 9th, and retired the Sox around a leadoff hit and a walk to pinch-hitter Ortiz.

With their 4 game sweep, the Yankees established their ownership of the AL East’s top spot. They are now 18-5 in the second half, and have won 7 straight. Except for a bad series at the White Sox where they lost 3 of 4, the Yankees have been on fire. They welcome Toronto in for a three game series before embarking on a 10 game road trip (4 @ Seattle,  3 @ Oakland and 3 @ Boston).

Boston is trending in the other direction, having lost 6 straight to the Yankees and Rays, and going 8-14 on the second half. They now go home to face Detroit, followed by three games at Texas, with whom they are now tied in the wild card race. Next comes three games at Toronto, before the Yankees  come into Boston for a three game set.

The Yankees and Red Sox had not met each other since June 9-11, when the Sox won 3 straight to move their head-to-head mark against the Yankees to 8-0. This weekend’s series proved that a lot has changed since then.

Upon a Huge Series

If you are a baseball fan, these next 4 days for the Yankees are exactly what make watching baseball great. A 4-game, early-August series against your main rival, with serious implications as far as the division goes.

Here’s what we know for sure:

1) The Yankees have a two-and-a-half game lead in the Division, following their two-game sweep of the Blue Jays, coupled with two straight losses by Boston at Tampa.

2) The Red Sox lead the season series 8-0.

These two stats do not seem to mesh, and speak to the competitiveness of this division. The series should be quite interesting, as the teams have not yet met each other at what can be called “full strength”. This time will be no exception, as Wang is out for the year for the Yankees, and Bay, Wakefield and Daisuke are ailing for the Sox.

The Pitching Matchups:

Thurs: Joba Chamberlain vs John Smoltz

Fri: AJ Burnett vs Josh Beckett

Sat: CC Sabbathia vs Clay Buchholz

Sun: Andy Pettite vs Jon Lester

These are four good pitching matchups, which again is what you want in a series. The Yankees wisely moved Sergio Mitre’s start to last night in Toronto, and have their four horses throwing. Joba is approaching his innings limit (ambiguous though it may be) but will set the tone for the weekend as he matches up with the up-and-down Smoltz. When the Red Sox grabbed Smoltz in the offseason, his big game pedigree had to be one of the major selling points. This is officially a big game, and Smoltz has not yet looked the part of a big game pitcher as he recovers from arm trouble.

On Friday, old Marlin-mates Beckett and Burnett hook-up for a fastball fest. Beckett is the Sox’ ace,  while Burnett has been very good but needs to bounce back from his first poor outing of the second half in his last start against the White Sox.

Saturday features CC vs Buchholz, with the Yankees workhorse vs a Sox starter who has not made it past the 5th inning and was recently shopped in a potential deal for Roy Halladay.

The finale on Sunday matches the old lefty against the young lefty. Jon Lester has been a dominant strikeout pitcher, while Pettite rebounded from a string of losses with a strong outing against Toronto on Tuesday.

The Potential Outcomes-

Sox 4-0- Another sweep would be demoralizing for the Yankees, and would transform a 2.5 game lead to a 1.5 game defecit

Sox 3-1- Still bad, but at least the half game lead remains.

2-2- The lead stays the same, and the Yankees move on.

Yankees 3-1- I’ve heard this as the result most Yankee fans would be happy with. Win the series.  4.5 game lead. Show that things have changed in the Yankees Favor

Yankees 4-0- Oh its on now! The first 8 games mean nothing, the mojo is back. 6.5 game lead and running away in mid-August.

Prediction- Yankees sweep, enough of the nonsense.

Upon an Interesting Stat

Courtesy of ESPN.com’s  “Did You Know?” section:

Mark Reynolds has hit as many home runs (4) in three games at Citi Field as David Wright has hit there all season

Interesting. With 32 jacks to this point, Reynolds has already eclipsed the career-high of 28 HR that he established last year, his second in the majors. He trails only Albert Pujols for the NL lead in bombs. Reynolds seems to be developing into an Adam Dunn type; high HR, high K’s, as he is 2nd in HR and 1st in Ks.

David Wright has a high average, high on-base %, and is playing quite well with a depleted supporting cast around him. However, it is strange that Wright (typically a 26-30 HR guy) has only 4 Citi Field HR in 52 home games, while Reynolds accomplished the feat in just 3 games. Wright has certainly been robbed of homers by the layout of the park, as opposed to Shea Stadium. There is a chart which lists players who have lost HR in the transition from one park to the next. Still, seems like the team’s primary healthy power guy should have more than 4, doesn’t it?